To: quehubo who wrote (74828 ) 2/17/2003 2:59:05 PM From: KLP Respond to of 281500 From the oil article: One has to wonder why oil companies would want to spend billions in development of oil resources in a country whose leader threatens to "set fire to the oil fields"..... Also wonder why any country or company would now really pay attention to UN mandates on oil, seeing the 12 year wimpishness which allowed Iraq to be in breech of compliance re WMD, etc. Especially interesting from the oil article: Iraq has promised mainly French, Russian and Chinese companies, led by TotalFinaElf and LUKoil, the prime choice of developing the country's massive but neglected oil resources, although questions are being raised whether such arrangements would be honoured in a post-Saddam Iraq. *********** Analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a research report: "We doubt that the Russian, French and Chinese governments would completely surrender their economic interests, and that support (or lack of opposition) to US military action may well come at the price of a proviso that they would have a post-Saddam economic role." *************** Royal Institute of International Affairs researcher Valerie Marcel agreed, saying in a recent study: "A key issue for all the companies that have invested time to negotiate these contracts has been whether the agreements currently in place will survive a change of regime in Iraq." ***********"In the event of an invasion, the future of these agreements may hinge on the result of negotiations with the United States and their countries' support for US policy in Iraq," Marcel said. *************French oil giant TotalFinaElf, which had been active in Iraq for decades even before the current sanctions, is in the pole position to lead the scramble into a post-Saddam Iraq, having initialled potentially lucrative agreements for two of Iraq's most promising fields. The biggest Russian oil company, LUKoil, had signed a contract to develop the vast West Qurna field although last week Iraq said it had made a "final decision" to cancel the contract because "over the past three years the Russian firm has not invested one dollar in the project," interim Iraq oil minister Samir Abdul al-Nejm said February 10. However, Iraq has engaged numerous other group's from Russia and elsewhere about developing its oil resources. But US oil firms have been notably absent, having been excluded from Iraq's huge oil reserves since the end of the 1980s when Washington-Baghdad relations deteriorated. A recent report by the Council on Foriegn Relations, a US think-tank, and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University warned against legal haggling between companies that have agreements with Iraq and those that are likely to want to get in on the game. "Prolonged legal conflicts over contracts could delay the development of important fields in Iraq and hamper a new government's ability to expand production. "It may be advisable to pre-establish a legitimate (preferably UN mandated) legal framework for vetting pre-hostility exploration agreements," it recommended.