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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (28818)	2/17/2003 9:48:04 PM
From: Muthusamy SELVARAJU	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, Having lived in Tehran for a year and after visiting both Baghdad and the Emirates on business several times in the past 20 years, I can honestly say that the naked sun or anywhere inside without air-cond from April 1st is not funny, even for the Arabs. I would expect several things to melt, even those of a metallic variety. Therefore, the likelihood of imminent war within the next 4 weeks is my vote. Selva

To: TobagoJack who wrote (28818)	2/17/2003 10:20:22 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<The oil future is saying 'there will be a war, and then Iraqi oil will free flow';>> US wants this. <<The gold market is saying 'there will be no war, and therefore no need for war premium'; and>> The rest of the world is signaling this. <<The equity market is saying 'peace on earth, for all times, starting now'.>> Everyone wants this <<At least one of the three markets is wrong.>> It is the first one that is wrong. To know how it will play out I looked to the psychological side of the equation. The US even if goes there and gets rid of Saddam will end up worse had it let Saddam die in power. The US knows how sweet it is to have a country that it, indirectly, control to milk it. Iran in the times of the Shah Reza Palevi, Saudi Arabia and countless countries whose good behavior was bought during the Cold War. The US long for this time they could call themselves supreme. They know the writing is on the wall and the days are numbered. The near the end they come, the more desperate they become. Iraq is a case in point. The only thing pointing for a decision "to the hell with it, lets boot Saddam by force" is the egos invested in this issue. Sons have this need to do something that their fathers are proud of. (The son of Li Ka Shing does that). Bush wants to move Saddam to show off to his dad. That's it. And that is convenient for the fat cat bureaucracy in DC. So far time has been gained. You know when a situation reaches a stalemate, a kidnapping asking for a ransom is a good example, the negotiating party tries to gain time. Once it starts on that road and the kidnapers don't execute the plan they had at the outset, it will end in pizza. My vote: is there isn't going to be a war.