To: foundation who wrote (32499 ) 2/17/2003 2:30:29 PM From: waitwatchwander Respond to of 197351 No EDGE to Europe, says The Shosteck Group 3gsmworldcongress.com European operators thinking about deploying EDGE technology as a stop gap until UMTS is commercially ready should forget about it, Shosteck Group CEO Jane Zweig and Chairman Herschel Shosteck told Monday morning’s market analysis and forecasts session. All new technologies go through a “five-year pain cycle,” Zweig explained, before they really become profitable; and because EDGE is some way behind UMTS in the development cycle, European operators should go straight for UMTS deployment. However, EDGE will have an important part to play in the Americas, she predicted, because by 2005, when EDGE handsets will start to be readily available, US and Latin American GSM operators (which have been migrating from TDMA) will still not be in a position to roll out UMTS networks. For them, UMTS might not happen until 2007 or even later. Towards the end of the decade, EDGE will then become an orphan technology like TDMA before it, and be completely replaced by UMTS. Perhaps the most sobering message, though, was for the traditional handset vendors such as Nokia, Motorola and Siemens. Herschel Shosteck observed that handsets are declining in price by 25 per cent each year, thanks in no small part to the large numbers of low-cost Asian (and especially Chinese) vendors that have been and will continue to enter the market. So where an average handset might have cost $330 last year, he explained, a comparable model will only fetch $250 this year. But, potentially an even greater threat to the Nokias and the Motorolas is the wealth of experience gleaned by vendors like Samsung and LG in the building of CDMA 1x phones. The Asian vendors can be expected to take advantage of this invaluable experience of the high-end phone market to produce a broader range, and probably a superior quality, of UMTS handsets than their US and European rivals. For any operator rolling out new network technology—be it a US operator like Cingular deploying GSM 850 or a European operator like Hutchison paving the way for its UMTS launch—the overriding problem remains handset costs. Jane Zweig commented that, by selling 3G phones at £400 a piece, Hutchison UK would have a very difficult job in meeting its target of achieving break-even in 2005. Hutchison should prepare itself for failure on that score, she suggested.