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To: mishedlo who wrote (221885)	2/17/2003 12:01:49 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 436258

mishedlo, that is the common wisdom regarding EUR/USD. As I stated before the US will welcome a weaker dollar but via a controlled slide of 2% a month or so. That is why I suggested to you two strategies about the EUR about a week ago - short term sell long term hold. The key at this point is the regime change in Iraq. A success of the US policies there, even if the US would go alone, will be a blow to the EUR and supportive for the USD, as the US will again "rule supreme" and most infrastructure projects will go to the "alliance of the willing". To predict the time frame of a friendly outcome is difficult even if Saddam is relatively easy defeated Germany and France will pay a hefty economic price if the US succeeds in the ME and that is the reason for their fierce opposition to a war in Iraq. From an economic point of view, France and Germany de facto sided with the rouge countries and against the US. ............. and just remember all wars are economic in nature ....... and as such would suggest to be nimble with the EUR In summary I see the French a a bunch of idiots trying to stick it to the US. If they would join forces with the US, Europe could only win. Unfortunate the French are much more greedy than their counterparts and want all the economic benefits only for themselves ....... hopefully the French will pay for their greediness in a very painful way. News from Germany indicated that a second consecutive contraction in growth would make a recession in Germany official after it was revealed Q4 was negative. Germany's Bundesbank says the global economic recovery slowed noticeably last fall and that a prolonged war with Iraq would lead to sharper falls in global growth. German Ifo chief Sinn agreed that uncertainty was making a more accurate forecast difficult and said that the research group sees little prospect for a German recovery this year with a GDP forecast of 1%. Both agreed that the downturn could only be reversed once geopolitical uncertainties are lifted. Germany's ZEW economic survey is due on Tuesday and traders will look to ECB Chief Duisenberg's testimony to the EU parliament today for any clues on a potential interest rate cut. Divided EU leaders met in Brussels today to discuss the crisis in Iraq and their stance. Foreign policy chief Solana said he expects EU leaders to agree that a war may be necessary against Iraq but only after all peaceful options are exhausted. Meanwhile, the US has said it will allow more time for diplomacy but is expected to try and sway Security Council members that Iraq meet deadlines for several specific disarmament requirements or face serious consequences.