["Who would trade something where every time the price goes up the commercials/producers bet against you so heavily that the price collapses? Time after time.'}
...once again....as Carlie says - it's all about:
A-N-T-I-C-I-P-A-T-I-O-N ~
This is not a one dimensional game.
It's about YOU versus the market (your opponent).
In Football,when you are on Defense; do you just let the opponnent snap the ball and run play after play against you without any preparation...without calling a defensive formation, without reacting to their formation, men in motion etc...do you not have a gameplan going into the game... did you not review/scout their past games (read market cycle history/war hedges), do you not have "keys" that you look for ? - do you not have a gameplan based on their past performances ?
When on Offense; if your're 4th & 1 and you've called an Off-Tackle Dive play...and they stack 9 guys on the line of scrimmage with Linebackers in your Off-Tackle Gaps and 2 Safety's standing right behind them - do you just go ahead and run the play; or do you audibilize on the line of scrimmage & call a quick Dump-Off Pass Play ?
This is a "dynamic" market... you can't be "static" in your responses.
Any pundit, fund manager, analyst, or market maven that ever says you should "Buy & Hold" in volatile commodity cycles - especially, one that says just "HOLD" during the unfolding of highly volatile market catalyst events; should be shot on sight... figuratively not literally of course - taken out & shot for being a complete and utter moron.
Telling people to just "hold" thru this predictable volatility that should have been ANTICIPATED on many fronts (150 HUI prior resistance levels, potential Double Top formation, War HEDGE = always Sell it, record open interest/bullishness in Bullion = always sell the specs, a too far, too fast & much, much too easy Rally = Sell it everytime; disconnection/failure of the stocks to follow Bullion higher to new highs & rolled over at the same nearly one year old resistance level = sell 'em every time ...how many things needed to pop up that SHOUTED -no-brainer SELL here ?)....All the Gold-Bull Web Sites said to just "hold" - which in reality, was simply just another way of saying - "we haven't a clue, so let's just keep waving the Pom-Pom's and hope we're right".
You'd damn well better be SURE on which direction the market is going to break/react off of that major unfolding Catalyst Event - or step aside....especially if it's off of a significant upside run and you've got massive profits just left hanging out there - flapping in the damn wind - begging to be taken from you.
That's what literally astounds me about the various Gold-Bull Web Sites out there !?!?!?!?!?
- show me one, just one - that even mouthed the words - DOUBLE TOP ?
- show me one that called this recent run - a no-brainer WAR HEDGE - SELLING/EXIT OP ?
- show me one that even said...RISK has ramped to an unacceptable degree and we feel it's impossible to call the outcome of the markets reaction to whether we do, or don't go to War in Iraq - so take the money off the table.
Not one did that I've seen.
... just more same ole' Chicken Little - Derivatives Meltdown Coming, the end of the USD is near, Account Deficits will lead to mass repatriation of US Investments, The World is Ending & Gold's going into a new paradigm MegaCycle and thru 1980 highs etc... just blind-bull Pom-Pom Waving and Cheerleading...that's all that was to be found - period.
All Puplava did was interview Prechter and let him espouse his theory that Gold would fall in a Deflation and Sinclair reacted like a spoiled 6 year old and took his Mega-Bull "ball" and ran home...then acted like a scharmy Penny-Stock Promoter and issued a Press Release stating he "intended" to buy $1M + of TanRange ?
INTENTIONS ? - again; pile Bull$hit in one hand and "intentions" in the other ...and see which one fills up fastest.
Volatile Commodity Cyclicals are the LAST place for a buy & hold mentatlity....if you want to buy & hold; find a good fund manager with a 10 year+ great track record for small cap growth stocks & buy and hold there.... NOT in Commodity Cyclicals.....not ones that have a multi-cycle history of collapsing 40-50% within weeks of an interim, or broad cycle top.
If after 12 - 18 mos trading individual cyclical stocks in the market - if you haven't figured out how to stay out ahead of the market; haven't learned that you must anticipate & not react... if you can't emotionally, or psychologically sell into the most positive of fundamentals, news, earnings & sentiment and when the stocks are ramping....get out now; because you'll forever be a human pinball; reacting late to the market that will continue to bounce you around.
Here's a replay of what happend to the Blind-Bull Goldbuggers here.
Mis-read/Mistake #1.
In October we saw a huge Bear Market Rally... money ran out of bonds and into equities; gold got trounced...people were discounting War in Iraq.....that was reload/add bigtime - time.
Mis-read/Mistake #2.
War in Iraq to anyone who hasn't let poltical emotion cloud their thinking; has been a 90-95%, if not an absolute "sure-thing" - sans an exile, or overthrow of Saddam....ever since we went into Afghanistan....and NOT a damn thing the UN says, or does... will matter one iota....they are "noise" that we tolerate-period...yes, we'd like to have them on our side...but, we will not let them, or anything they say, or do; stand in our way.
Viewing anything the UN says, or does; as anything other than entertainment value... was a mistake.
They just put Iraq in charge of Global Disarmament.
They failed to make Iraq comply with 16 prior UN Resolutions.
Mis-read/Mistake #3.
Goldbugs failed to "anticipate" that because the War was a "sure thing" - that funds would ultimately flow into Gold as a "Safety Hedge to War".
Mis-read/Mistake #4.
And when funds did flow into Gold; Goldbugs failed to read the "too far, too fast & too easy" run that Gold & Gold Stocks made off the Oct 10th pullback - as primarially a Flight to Safety "HEDGE" to War....when it most obviously - was.
Mis-read/Mistake #5.
Goldbugs failed to anticipate that a Rally of that size - would be sold/exited from and even shorted...and it was.
- a contracting USD, ramping US Deficits, slow Global Economy, Derivatives Issues etc... weren't NEW to the Oct to Dec Gold Rally ? - these catalysts just didn't arrive on the Goldbug horizon post Oct 10th ?....they were known underlying longterm positives for gold for over a year ! Anyone who failed to see this post October Rally in Gold and Gold Stocks as virtually, entirely due to a Flight to Safety HEDGE on War... is a moron.
I'm sorry.... they were and are - SIMPLETON-MORONS.
The entire Gold-Eagle, Puplava, Prudent Bear, Sinclair, 321 Gold, Kitco, Daily Reckoning, GATA, Le Metropole Cafe CROWD - all blew this play....not one mention of the potential formation of a "Double Top"...no one pounding the table that the rally was too far, too fast AND too easy - that it absolutely was a purely overdone WAR/HEDGE and to sell/short it.
You didn't find that on ANY of the Gold-Bull Web Sites.
...and you never will.
Whodathunkit ?
This was as EASY and as PREDICTABLE of a call & trade that has arisen in this entire Gold cycle...by a wide margin.
This was a Silver-Platter/Gift Horse Trading Op...and it was a slow-moving target as well.
Now we're reading headline after headline about Gold selling off after Saddam allows U-2 SpyPlane Flights, after Blix says Iraq is "cooperating" etc... on each headline that leads the "sheep" to think that the odds of invading Iraq are lessening... Gold Sells Off....and this "wasn't" a WAR/HEDGE Play !?!?!?!??!!?
Puh-LEEEEEEEEeeeeeeeeeeeeeze.
....if ANYONE missed this play -
They just don't get much easier than this...and as the Gold Cycle plays out...they're probably going to get much , much more difficult.
If you didn't nail this one....Good Luck and may the Market God's have mercy on your soul from here on out....because you're going to need both mercy and luck.
Sometimes people need to be hugged & coddled...and sometimes they need to be Bitch/Pimp- Slapped ...and the Goldbugs got what they deserved here.
You wonder why the commercials spanked you here ? You wonder who was offloading all this stock to all the mo-mo players & War Hedgers ? You wonder why the commercials layed on an EXXXXXXXxtreme short position into a record spec play...and won ?
....start thinking like a "commercial"-ANTICIPATE; ask - "what would they do here ?...what will they do, if "x" occurs ? - what will they do if "z" ?
HEEEEEEEEeeeeeeeeeeeello people ?
It really wasn't that damn difficult. |
