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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: habitrail who wrote (28279)2/17/2003 7:39:48 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 36161
 
I do mention the concept of capital preservation etc
and cite countless forces

on page #3, I have...

The volcano is building in pressure. What say to forces? The forces will be capital seeking preservation, survival, even growth opportunities. They will join with the USDollar decline cantilever. Mammoth hydraulic power coming from the Federal Reserve itself will finally pump new money into a desperate system with utter futility. While fighting deflation, the unintended consequence of limitless creation of new fiat dollars will be a sustained power amplitude. Think of it as the USGovt kicking in the “turbocharger” to the dollar plunge, from adding to an oversupply already. The new money will find the path of least resistance and highest prospect for gain – COMMODITIES. The chief financial commodities are gold & silver. The chief commercial commodities are oil & gas. Where debts do not obstruct investment, money will seek out and be directed like a magnet.

the primary force is the USDollar decline, mentioned repeatedly
I think the other mechanisms are simpler than we realize
I dont mean to be flippant, but
they sell one instrument and buy a gold instrument
but they must choose which -- metal, futures, stocks

the central contradiction that I notice in my own arguments is...

I claim the Fed Monetization will hold down longterm rates from outright purchase of 10-yr TNotes, thereby eliminating the feedback mechanism for encouraging foreigners to find dollars

but I also claim that Real Estate will be hurt from rising longterm rates, thus undermining the housing sector and the economy from consumer spending drawn off equity borrowing lines

timing clarifies the apparent contradiction
early on, the Fed will keep longterm rates down, and the dollar will continue down unabated
then later, longterm rates will rise, after imported products rise in price, giving off price inflation
when the Chinese yuan is revalued upward, then price inflation really moves up

heck, HabitMan
I tried like hell to delineate numerous forces and avenues
gold is rising, it is working, and so people will chase it
in the "Hedge Fund" section, I said...

These guys chase performance with a vengeance. They have found gold, and will certainly deepen their commitments.

I am not sure what you might mean by "forces"
give me an example of what I omit

thanks for the cooperative tone
I like most of you guys over here on SD2
as long as debate is constructive, I will engage constructively
much of what I have seen in the last two days have not been that

take it easy
/ jim