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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: borb who wrote (3258)	2/17/2003 9:32:15 PM
From: Crossy	Respond to of 3902

Borb, individual stocks are the only game in town if you have some inference skills and can do your own DD. Why pay a fund manager when you can do it on your own with better results than the market niche where you would invest ? well my position in NIEC (6974.J) 250-290 Yen is doing quite well, also I have bought a position in a small secondary electronic component maker called Tokyo Cosmos Electric (6772.J) - 80 Yen. The latter one is very interesting. Firm is expected to earn 20 Yen per share this year and next. Also it's very much automotive and digital-camera related with its products. I got out of Shimadzu at break even and sold Asahi Kasei with a small loss in 2002. Funny, the more I look at NIEC the better I like it. They recently confirmed their 18 Yen EPS outlook for the year ending this March. If they can keep their promise, this would be their biggest EPS announcement since 1994 (don'T ave the EPS data before). During the period 1994-2003 NIEC has traded as high as 700-800 Yen... I have patience since next year's projected EPS is even higher, around 30 Yen and more. So I see the old ceiling above 700 as attainable with NIEC. Recently stumbled over a research paper shedding light on individual components of deflation. Found that electric appliances and consumer nondurables experienced the highest deflationary pressures over the last 5 years. No wonder classic "integrated electronic producers" like Hitachi, Mitsubishi electric etc. are trading at sub 0.30 PSR ratings.. I opt for almost pure-play semiconductor companies instead. They are more influenced by technical progress and design proficience instead of deflation and "machine works" success. Both New Japan Radio (which I had last year) and NIEC are almost 100% purely semiconductor related. The problem with the "traditional" semi firms like Mitsubishi, Fujitsu, NEC, Hitachi etc. is that only 20% of their operations are really semiconductor device related. Rest is electrical appliance or else and that's not where I want to be. The other pure semiconductor firm I was watching was SANKEN Electric (6707.J) which literally ran away from me. I spotted it under 600 Yen last year. It's now at 940 Yen still going up.. What a pity - and I'm not in.. I'm eyeing semiconductor equipment makers but from afar. Cheaply valued are Horiba (6856.J) 780 Y and JEOL (6951.J) 490 Y - both are major firms, not entirely dependent on semiconductor biz with their analytical equipment but to a good part. Problem is they are in a downtrend. So I'm still watching.. Recent refinancings of JApan banks raised my interest in that sector as well. If I got some time I will look at their balance sheets and bad debt positions. I got somehow the feeling that the bad loan problem could be soon resolved (over the next 2 years). Indication is the bailout of former LTC-Bank - now called Sansha Bank. Makes an interesting restructuring case. rgrds CROSSY

To: borb who wrote (3258)	2/18/2003 4:43:22 AM
From: Crossy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

re: Tokyo Cosmos, NIEC funny - NIEC (6974.J) seems to be holding on its own against a negative trend in the overall market - literally unchanged at 280 Yen. And one of the other stocks in my portfolio that I mentioned yesterday - Tokyo Cosmos electric - 6772.Y - stormed ahead 16% yesterday - from 80 to 93 Yen on heavy buying of 135k shares breakint out of its former trading range which was topped at 84 Yen. Normally barely 10k are being traded: quote.yahoo.co.jp quote.yahoo.co.jp Fundamentally this one is rather interesting. In the past Tokyo Cosmos never was really profitable. But now the tables are literall turned. Trading around 95 Yen, with expected 2003 earnings (for the FY ending this MArch) of 22 Yen, it's at a Price/Earnings of 4.3 and a PSR (Price to Sales) of 0.10. Very low, and a very good valuation. They are serving hot-growth pockets (automotive, digicams etc.) with their electronic components (photodiodes, heating elements, hybrid ICs, photosensors, other sensors, thermistors, varistors). Webpage: tocos-j.co.jp Company Profile : tocos-j.co.jp Wright company profile: profiles.wisi.com Here are the earnings estimates for FY 2003, 22 Yen are expected for each FY2003 and FY2004, yet the company is trading around 95 Yen : biz.yahoo.co.jp This shows the company's sales trends - you will see the firm was literally grappling along from 1994 to 1999 but then in FY2000 it seems to have moved into new high growth business, significantly expanding it's EBTIDA margins to the high 20ies range: profiles.wisi.com This is an earnings tracker of Tokos, proofing that the company's interim earnings this year already is at 12 Yen per share. Actually the company is earning record earnings levels now. Yet the shares are trading near absolute lows (hit this winter at 55 Yen) A classic story of news that need to feed through: profiles.wisi.com One year candle chart: bigcharts.marketwatch.com Honestly, this company should be trading near it's 10 year high rather than it's 10 year low. In the early 90ies it traded as high as 1000 Yen. Here's a 10 year chart: bigcharts.marketwatch.com Next resistance levels at 100, 120, 170 and 250, 550, 700 Yen bigcharts.marketwatch.com best rgrds CROSSY