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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (28286)	2/18/2003 12:37:17 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Tokyo-Jim re:USD/Gold-use the Michael Waltrip Method ! Michael Waltrip's strategy for winning the Daytona 500 yesterday... is a perfect analogy for trading this Gold Market...and for specifically answering/addressing a weaker USD and how/when it impacts Gold Prices. Michael Waltrip made a brilliantly SIMPLE strategic decision on how to Race to Win yesterday. Everyone else was focused on how the weather, re-starts/delay's etc would impact Race Strategy. Waltrip decided to win the portion of the "race" that was presented to him, that was at hand...and worry about winning the post-weather delay race...when & if it ever stopped raining and there was a post-weather delay continuation. The same parallels exist in the Gold Market. Trade to win the "race" that the Market Presented to us here... whether this is merely a subcycle within a much broader Secular move for Gold, or whether we just hit the highs of the entire Cycle and it's now over; can't be presently determined by anyone...and it might be all the "race" there is... so first focus on "winning" the Race that the Market just gave us....and worry about winning any broader, continuing secular races - when & if they present themselves. ...same for the USD. No guarantees that USD 95 = POG $400 ..............that USD 85 = POG $450 ..............that USD 80 = POG $500 No guarantees that any potential flight from the USD will automatically end up in Gold, any more than the Yen, British Pound, Swissie, SA Rand, Australian, or Canadian Dollar....it's just speculation....just as it's speculation as to how far the USD will fall and perhaps most importantly; whether things have shifted to where a lower USD to a certain level, won't actually be strongly positive for the USA. So Trade & Win the Gold/USD relationship/"race" that is in front of us now...adjust to the dynamic changes that the continuation of the Gold/USD relationshio-race presents - when & if they present themselves later.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (28286)	2/18/2003 4:26:36 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Tokyo-JoeWille re: ["a USDollar move from 100 to 80 will bring about the following: - 30% cut in Dow - $100 to $150 rise in gold, minimum"] ...funny how none of the Mega-Gold Bull Web Sites and the "Gold is going -Too the Moon-Alice" Goldbuggers here are mentioning one little problem with the coming end of the USD ? - that China has it's currency fixed to the USD. A little complexity there my hairless friend. ...then there's Japan that also wants a weaker currency. Then there's that little fact that not only is a lower dollar now part of US Policy and a positive for America ! ... and that the Euro-schmuro was orignally pegged at $1.17 only 4 years ago and where was GOLD then Tokyo-JW ? Euro at $1.069 today... lots of room to run to $1.17 and that didn't drive Gold then, why now ? Seems like the USD can obviously weaken considerably against the Euro from here and still be in "been there & done that" territory that didn't catapult Gold. Was the USD at 115 a good short play ? - obviously. Is the USD going lower ? - yes, obviously. In the recent past, has the USD been significantly lower - without Gold being significantly higher ? - YES, QUITE OBVIOUSLY. ...then there's your "Staples Express-lane Cashier" statistical assessment; that a 20% contraction in the USD will = a 40%+ rise in Gold ? You obviously pulled that one out of that gasseous black hole - called Uranus. Lots of other Mega-Gold Bulls on record for saying that a 20% contraction in the USD will only raise gold a max 20% ? ...I guess your "Jim Willie versus the Volcano" B-Movie rehash of all the other 3 year old Mega-Gold Bull Web Site articles-end of the world Gloom & Doom tripe, is an attempt to self-elevate yourself above and beyond the the Gloomiest of the Doomers; to become the Doomerest of the Gloomiest ? One clue: Play the "game" and Race the "race" - that the Market is putting in front of us, right here - right now. Let the Rain Delay play itself out...and we'll worry about the "rest of the race" - later, if indeed; there even is a "rest of the race"....as that is yet to be determined. PS: GOLD Short update ! CEF leads the pack down today, under the $5 margin level...and still trying to swim against the current carrying all that "premium" around it's ankles (VBG) ! Ka-Ching.....will re-join y'all to play some more after dinner, tonight. Don't overplay your "end of the USD hand" just yet Tokyo...China & Japan have a little say in it too, you know (vbg).