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To: Tushar Patel who wrote (173102)2/18/2003 9:05:45 AM
From: GVTucker  Respond to of 186894
 
[by me]: Yes, it would be more accurate to tax things at time of grant, but over the long haul, the actual value at time of exercise will end up equaling the value at time of grant.

[by Tushar Patel]: Can you explain why this is true?

This isn't necessarily true by rule. It makes the assumption that Black-Scholes can accurately value options ex ante. My experience is that it can, especially once the sample size gets large, hence my qualifier over the long haul. If Black-Scholes does indeed value options properly, then it stands to reason that an option should have a normal expected return. In the real world, some options expire worthless and some are worth a lot. For Black-Scholes, all of them are in between. In aggregate, if Black-Scholes values things right, the totals should be the same.