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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (28839)	2/18/2003 12:06:15 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Kastel - North American Natural Gas is getting less boring- heading for a very serious shortages with cold weather, declining supplies, and not enough drilling. The pricing of NG can still go higher - right now it's priced like rest of the winter will be warmer than average. This winter not only reverted to mean, it was colder than average. Canadian storage is lower percentage wise than U.S. storage. Canadian pricing has risen more than U.S. pricing in percentage terms. Royalty trusts, like ERF, PWI, NCN, PGH, and AVN.to have just starterd to raise their payouts. many of these payouts are in the 8 to 16 % range. Chart of ERF - siliconinvestor.com Chart of NCN - siliconinvestor.com Meanwhile, they keep steadily climbing in value, about 1 % per WEEK or better. Some time in the next four months, maybe after the Q1 reports in April, the rest of Wall Street will realize the value in the roylaty trusts, and Natural gas heavy E&Ps, and we may see 25% appreciation in a few weeks. Right now enough people realize it to push values up steadily...

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (28839)	2/18/2003 2:00:21 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

Kastel wrote "Always looking for homerun areas for the speculative cash...." Best game for that that I know right now is Utility bingo. Most of the players on Big Dog's Boom Boom Room. Stocks of interest - RRI, TE, MIR, WMB, EP and some others. These stocks are at very low prices because they are somewhere between Re-fiancing and bankruptcy. Also wild swings. I'm avoiding EP right now, nibbling on TE, have a little WMB and MIR, and may take a big chunk of RRI. RRI has a re-finance deadline of Feb. 19. I expect thay will ask for an extension and get it. Stock is now about $3.50. If they announce the re-fi is done, then it may go to $8.00 in a day. The other game is SMALL E&Ps, leveraged to natural gas. This isn't hot yet, but look at CRK - Commstock. VERY highly leverage, and so far unhedged. If this sounds like a gold play, they are very similar. Gas keeps going up, they makes tons of money. Gas drops- ouch ! Above stuff is very speculative.