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Politics : DON'T START THE WAR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9717)2/18/2003 6:26:49 AM
From: PartyTime  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25898
 
A Weekend Full of Shame
By Boris Kagarlitsky

<http://www.moscowtimes.ru/photos/temp/dissident.gif>
The global crisis that came to a head over the weekend has resulted in defeat and unprecedented humiliation for the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush. Washington had been sure that France would not veto its proposed UN resolution on launching military action against Iraq. But last Friday it became clear that the U.S. proposal was dead in the water even without a French veto. The weapons inspectors did not follow the script that Washington had expected, and Security Council members took the floor one after the next to state their opposition to war.

An even bigger humiliation for Bush followed in the form of huge anti-war marches around the world, including the United States. The few West European governments that still support Washington came in for massive street pressure. A consensus is building around the world that Bush is a dangerous man. The leadership in Washington kept stubbornly repeating that Saddam Hussein poses a threat to humanity, but their exhortations had the opposite effect. Hussein clearly poses a threat to his own people, but millions of people around the world have reached the conclusion that Bush, not Hussein, poses a threat to the planet.

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While the U.S. leadership came under attack, Russia once more demonstrated its impotence and insignificance. Over the past decade Russia has been politically dependent on the United States, and economically on Germany. The United States dictated Russia's political agenda, while Germany gradually became its most important business partner and source of foreign investment. This system worked quite well so long as Germany kept a low profile in international affairs and at least made a show of solidarity with the United States. When disagreements between the United States and Germany came to the surface, however, the Russian leadership was at a loss.

Moscow behaved like one of Ivan Pavlov's dogs. So long as the signals come one at a time, the dog's conditioned reflexes respond properly -- it salivates at the sound of the bell. Then the scientist gives it two contradictory signals. The poor beast goes into a panic, spinning around in its cage. Something similar has happened with the Russian leadership this winter. Only when it became clear that France and Germany would secure a majority in the Security Council, and that no veto would be required, did President Vladimir Putin demonstratively side with the victors.

For 10 years Kremlin ideologues have led the public to believe that Russia must support the United States or risk condemnation from the "entire civilized world." The events of last Friday revealed, however, that Washington is now isolated. Russian policymakers drew the right conclusion in the end. As was immediately obvious, however, their actions were driven not by firm principles or concern for the national interest, but sheer opportunism. The sight of Russian leaders mouthing words dictated in Berlin while never taking their eyes off of Washington was nothing short of embarrassing.

Russian society, unfortunately, seized the opportunity to sink to the level of its leaders. On Saturday, when hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Western Europe, the United States and even Australia, Russians preferred to stay at home. This would have made sense if Russians supported Bush or approved of the war, but polls show that opposition to war in Iraq is no less widespread here than in most European countries. Even the Chechen campaign no longer enjoys broad support. Anti-war sentiment may be quite high, but the public has no plans to tell anyone about it.

Local leaders in some provincial towns organized anti-war marches, rounding up participants using the good old Soviet tactic of "compulsory voluntarism." In Moscow, where the old tactics no longer work, two demonstrations were held. Leftist and pacifist organizations rallied about 200 young people on Tverskoi Bulvar under the slogan: "No War in Iraq and Chechnya!" The Communists and their nationalist allies barely managed to turn out twice that number. For the Communists, with their enormous resources, this turnout was humiliating. But the left can hardly be proud of its efforts, either.

The politicians may well be pleased with how Russia extricated itself from this crisis. Things could have been worse, of course. But to be honest, the weekend's events left me feeling deeply ashamed for Russian society.

Boris Kagarlitsky is director of the Institute of Globalization Studies.

moscowtimes.ru



To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (9717)2/18/2003 6:29:19 AM
From: PartyTime  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25898
 
moscowtimes.ru

Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2003. Page 3

Experts: U.S. Must Not Act Like a Cowboy in a Saloon
By Natalia Yefimova
Staff Writer

While there is little Russia can do to stop U.S. military action against Iraq, Moscow should position itself as a "responsible partner," pushing Washington to abide by international law and avoiding rash moves that could jeopardize Russian interests in a postwar Iraq, foreign policy and security experts said Monday.

There is no need to view the United States as a potential enemy, Iosif Diskin of the Institute of Socioeconomic Problems told a round table.

"It is not in Russia's interests to pursue a confrontational strategy in its relations with America. ... We must not haggle; we must seek a balance of interests based on international law," Diskin said.

Russia's main diplomatic goal has been upholding the authority of the UN Security Council, one of the few international institutions where Moscow wields considerable influence.

If Washington acts unilaterally, "the United Nations will effectively be trampled to bits," Federation Council Senator Anatoly Korobeinkov warned.

Another important aim for Russia is to bolster the close ties it has established with Western leaders since the 2001 terrorist attacks and to use these relations to advance its national interests in trade and international affairs, political analyst Sergei Markov said.

Most of the speakers agreed that Iraqi President Saddam Hussein poses an international security threat. But they felt this did not justify, in Markov's words, Washington's "behaving like a cowboy in a saloon" and could set a dangerous precedent.

"Today they get rid of Saddam, tomorrow [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Il. ... It is a flagrant violation of international law," said Fyodor Ladygin, who headed the Foreign Intelligence Service in 1992-97.

If the United States firmly decides to oust Hussein, it will do so, but what is important is the aftermath, State Duma Deputy Alexei Arbatov said. Arbatov pointed out that restoring and policing Iraq in the postwar phase is when Washington will need the most help from its allies. He and many of the other experts also warned that getting rid of Hussein by force would fuel a new wave of radical Islamic terrorism.

Meanwhile, a delegation of several dozen scholars, journalists and lawmakers, including Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov, arrived in Iraq on Monday for a three-day visit meant to highlight Moscow's opposition to military action, Interfax reported.

Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov reiterated the official position that war is a last resort and the Iraq crisis can still be resolved peacefully through the work of international weapons inspectors.

Itar-Tass said the UN has accepted "in principle" Russia's offer of a reconnaissance plane to monitor Iraq, and they will discuss details later this month.