U.S. War on Iraq to Create More bin Laden Recruits
by Samia Nakhoul
Published on Tuesday, February 18, 2003 by Reuters
DUBAI - Would a U.S.-led war on Iraq make the world and the Middle East safer? Or is it more likely to unleash a wave of anti-American rage and create more recruits for Osama bin Laden?
The answer from the streets of the Middle East, official circles, analysts, academics and clerics is almost unanimous -- a U.S. invasion will most certainly provoke a backlash, and this could put the security of the world at risk.
There doesn't seem to be a middle ground in the Middle East now. People who are Western-educated with liberal values and sympathetic to the West are now hostile. Their position has been undermined by U.S. policy.
Middle East Diplomat
"The record in the past is that any use of force by external powers has triggered a backlash," Sami Baroudi, professor of political science at Beirut's Lebanese American University said.
With anti-U.S. sentiment already brimming in the Middle East, an attack to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein for allegedly possessing banned weapons is seen by most analysts as fanning the flames in an already volatile region.
"This U.S. policy is radicalising public opinion. The United States is pursuing an extremely dangerous policy of provoking Arabs and Muslims. This can only result in increased terror and violence," Middle East analyst Patrick Seale told Reuters.
"The Arab and Muslim region is not ready for a new colonial experience. Al Qaeda is still out there, attracting new recruits by the day and poised to strike again," he added.
Many analysts believe war would fuel bin Laden's movement.
"What do they think the presence of 100,000 U.S. troops in the Gulf will cause if the presence of 10,000 sparked an Islamist revolt among bin Laden's recruits?," said one diplomat in reference to bin Laden's campaign against the U.S. troop presence in the Arabian peninsula after the 1991 Gulf War.
Washington says Saddam is a menace who must be removed to make the world safer. But many in the Arab world say the threat comes from Israel, which has been locked in a bloody conflict with the Palestinians for five decades -- and has an unlicensed arsenal of an estimated 200 nuclear warheads.
ANTI-AMERICANISM ON THE RISE
Analysts say the strong popular sympathy the United States received from Arab nations after the September 11 attacks on U.S. cities has evaporated because of what is regarded as Washington's blind support of Israel -- fuelling the widespread belief that the United States is waging a "crusade" on Islam.
"America's incorrect policy and its double standards in the region have made people like bin Laden preserve their popularity and become a hero especially among the youth in the Islamic states," Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said this week.
One alarming factor is that anti-Americanism is growing even among the traditionally pro-Western Arab middle and upper class.
"There doesn't seem to be a middle ground in the Middle East now. People who are Western-educated with liberal values and sympathetic to the West are now hostile. Their position has been undermined by U.S. policy," one diplomat said.
Arab politicians and academics have deep suspicion about U.S. intentions. They say Israel and its hawkish American allies, many of whom hold top jobs in the U.S. administration of President George W. Bush, are trying to get America to destroy Israel's enemies and control oil in the Gulf.
Observers point out that U.S. intervention in the region has almost always provoked a backlash. The 1991 Gulf War, in which a U.S.-led alliance that included 13 Arab and Muslim states freed Kuwait from Iraqi occupation, was something of an exception.
"In 1991, there was quite a bit of understanding from the Arab governments and even from the Arab street (about) why the U.S. had to lead the alliance to evict Iraq from Kuwait. But in this case, there is no pretext, so we will probably see more anti-U.S. activities," Baroudi said.
U.S. SEEN AS BULLYING MUSLIMS
While Saudi Arabia was the key launchpad for the 1991 Gulf War, many Arabs believe the situation is different now.
"At that time, Iraq was the obvious aggressor in a conflict between Muslim countries," said Saudi bricklayer Mohammad. "Now a non-Muslim superpower is bullying a helpless Muslim nation."
Two more U.S. interventions are also embedded in Arab minds. Israel's initially U.S.-blessed 1982 invasion of Lebanon, mounted to drive Palestinian guerrillas from the country, led directly to the birth of the Hizbollah guerrilla group, blamed for kidnappings and suicide attacks on U.S. targets.
Just as that invasion spawned Hizbollah, many observers believe U.S. support for Israel over the past decade has enabled Islamist groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad to displace mainstream Palestinian nationalism in the fight against Israel.
And even the 1991 Gulf War ended by spurring support for bin Laden, who seized on the U.S. troop presence in Saudi Arabia as a rallying cry. Analysts say another war will make things worse.
Even Kuwait, the only Arab country overtly in favour of war on Iraq, and which has every reason to be thankful to America for its liberation, anti-American sentiment is growing and a series of attacks since October has targeted Americans.
The drumbeat of war has sharpened emotions in this intensely religious region, and many Muslims, as in other societies in times of conflict, are turning to the mosque as their rallying ground. Often, the message they hear is a radical one.
In a recent sermon, Saudi Arabia's top cleric warned more than two million pilgrims that the West wanted to destroy Islam.
"This is a war on Islam. The infidels want to attack Arab and Muslim nations by attacking Saddam," said Khaled, a Saudi.
Analysts say the prospect of war will make it far easier for bin Laden and other militant groups to gather recruits.
"Bin Laden is one of an army of people who feel this way," Seale said. "This anti-imperialist, anti-American movement...is not a single organisation, it is recruiting lots of small groups who are enraged by the U.S. and who want to hit back."
"Bush is keeping them (bin laden followers) in business," added one Arab diplomat. "With Bush as a recruiting sergeant these people will be in business for another generation."
(Additional reporting by Merhdad Balali in Riyadh, Edmund Blair in Beirut and Paul Hughes in Tehran)
Copyright 2003 Reuters Ltd
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