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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (75375)2/18/2003 9:24:09 PM
From: quehubo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
The only way Saddam will be neutralized without an invasion is if he believes the vast majority of the world is united against him and he is confidant that he will be invaded.

The signals the French and the Germans are sending increase the chances of war by providing Saddam hope that he wont be invaded.

The anti-war marchers are just as guilty as the French and the Germans. If marchers wanted to reduce the probability of war they should have been marching against Saddam not for him. Quite clearly marchers understand that Saddam will feel empowered by these protests.

Unfortunately we will never know because the time to convince Saddam to comply peacefully has passed.



To: JohnM who wrote (75375)2/19/2003 12:00:22 AM
From: Nadine Carroll  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
It's not up to the marchers to offer an acceptable rationale for another course of action. The need only say no or yes.

...Give women the vote; get out of Vietnam; stop racism in the US.


The three campaigns you mention all had a straightforward translation from the demonstration to the political course of action desired - it was clearly possible to pass the Suffrage Amendment, leave Vietname, and pass civil rights legislation. In fact, the demonstrations happened to support political campaign that were going on at the same time.

Now, the political consequence being demanded at the anti-war demonstrations is a chimera: Disarm Saddam peacefully. Saddam isn't disarming peacefully with 200,000 troops on his border; he's certainly not going to disarm if we forget about the invasion as the demonstrators demand. So the real non-chimerical demand translates to: Leave Saddam alone. Pull back the troops, lift the sanctions (the demonstrators object vehemently to the result of sanctions), sell the Kurds down the river.

The demonstrators are supporting a non-serious policy. This guts the chances of their having any political influence. Saying 'it's not their job' to get a coherent policy is like saying that an opposition party has no responsibility to come up with a coherent platform. If they don't, then they don't have any serious plans for returning to power, apart from praying that the party in power screws up badly.

As for the Taliban insertion in that sentence, I assume that was a typo. You meant to type Al Q. But now having typed it, it does occur to me that had the US continued after Al Q after 9-11,and not taken a wrong turn into Iraq, the same kind of backing found for the Afghanistan campaign would likely still be around. Assuming, of course, the Bush folk could handle the diplomacy of all that with a bit better skill than to date.

No, I meant to type 'the Taliban' since they ran Afghanistan, the country we were about to invade. If you will recall, the far left was totally opposed to that attack also, and made very free with predictions of quagmires, humanitarian disasters (remember Chomsky's "silent genocide of three or four millions"?), the brutal Afghan winter, and "Afghanistan, death of empires". But in the direct aftermath of 9/11, these opponents did not have the time or chance to gather supporters to demand that we Leave Mullah Omar Alone.



To: JohnM who wrote (75375)2/19/2003 2:20:30 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 281500
 
This was more than a protest against war

By JOYCE McMILLAN
The Scotsman
Tue 18 Feb 2003

news.scotsman.com

IT’S NOT often that descriptions of the weather make their way into history books. But all the same, I think very few of the 100,000 or so who gathered at Glasgow Green on Saturday morning will ever forget the almost uncanny perfection of the day; the cloudless blue sky, the hazy but brilliant winter sunlight bathing the whole of central Scotland, the hint of spring warmth in the sunshine taking the chill off the bitter temperatures.

It somehow seemed to confirm the status of the event as something more than a demonstration; as a big day out, an explosion of pent-up feeling, a massive festival of protest against the current political order of things. All the usual suspects were there, of course. There were the hardcore pacifists and the veteran anti-war campaigners, the Pilgerist Left with their conviction that George Bush’ s United States is an evil empire to be opposed at all costs, the trade unions with their fluttering banners and their traditional mistrust of warmongers, the opposition political parties - SNP and Green - cashing in on New Labour’s divisions and discomfiture.

But there were other, less familiar forces too, marching as individuals or in little informal groups. There were affronted patriots obsessed with Blair’s apparent status as George Bush’s "poodle" - "Don’t be a Puppet to a Muppet", read one home-made placard. There was a generation of students and young people finding a strong political voice for the first time; you haven’t really lived in modern Scotland until you’ve seen a group of demure-looking female Muslim students from Dundee marching up St Vincent Street yelling: "1-2-3-4, we don’t want your f...ing war!"

And there was a sudden, surprising contingent of what can only be called the seriously trendy; the arbiters of cool who wouldn’t have been caught dead on any Scottish demonstration in the past 15 years, but who suddenly decided, in that strange zeitgeisty way of theirs, that Glasgow Green was the only place to be last Saturday morning.

And what did all this amount to? Well clearly, not the beginning of a great new peace movement, or of some new anti-capitalist consensus. The groups and individuals involved were far too disparate for that; and I doubt whether that same alliance will ever emerge again in the form or numbers it briefly achieved last Saturday. But the crowd did have one notable feature, in that it was a tremendously upmarket gathering, professional and well-educated to a fault. By sheer chance, for instance, I noticed as we waited to march off that my tiny corner of Glasgow Green contained three leading Scottish novelists, one major poet, one of the UK’s top museum directors, one well-known theatre director and designer, and a famous rock singer turned intellectual.

And as I looked around at the home-made placards and banners - many of which carried slogans such as "No more lies" and "No more spin" - I began to realise that what was going on was not only an understandable protest against the prospect of war, but also an unprecedented outburst on the part of Britain’s concerned, broadsheet-reading middle classes against the miserable quality of the politics of the last decade, against its cynicism, its control-freakery, and its relentless and patronising manipulation of opinion.

If you want to lead and to be followed, this crowd seemed to be saying to the Prime Minister, then you are going to have to raise your game, and change the tone of the debate. No more reduction of serious policy matters to dumbed-down soundbites, no more shameful cut-and-paste attempts at Downing Street propaganda, no more casual assumption that the people are idiots whose consent can be bought with a display of political smoke and mirrors.

The march felt, in other words, less like the beginning of something new than like a single, deafening warning shot across Tony Blair’s bows. Bring to an end this dismal decade of lies, spin and cynical news management, ran the subtext of the demo, and start talking to us like adults; or risk seeing the gap between government and some of its most active and intelligent citizens grow ever wider, and more dangerous to democracy.

And the irony is that up to a point, that was exactly what Tony Blair seemed to be beginning to do, in his address at the SECC on Saturday. It was certainly feeble of him to change the time of his speech in order to avoid any encounter with the protesters; if leading politicians got out more, and were not so surrounded by security-obsessed goons, they would realise just how bad this kind of move makes them look. But whether one agreed with it or not, his speech was a far more impressive effort - more realistic, more statesmanlike, more responsive to the continuing public debate, and more clearly argued through - than the typical jumble of verbless slogans that makes up a Tony Blair speech on domestic policy. By all accounts, it wrung unwilling applause even from some of the most sceptical of Labour delegates; and it represented an example of the kind of respectful leadership, including a willingness to engage in serious argument on the issues, that Tony Blair will have to show again and again if he is to vindicate his decisions on Iraq.

But finally, even if he is proved right - even if the war is short and successful, even if the West keeps its promise to rebuild a democratic Iraq, even if the threat of terrorism against Western cities proves containable - Tony Blair would do well to remember the many causes of the anger that brought hundreds of thousands on to the streets at the weekend, and to consider how those forces are likely to play themselves out in domestic politics.

For the truth about Tony Blair’s premiership is that if he had tackled some of Britain’s domestic problems with one-tenth of the vision, certainty and willingness to face down opposition that he brings to his international agenda, then Britain in 2003 could have been a country transformed, with a healthy new transport infrastructure, a workable plan for a 21st-century health service, and a public education system on the way to becoming one of the best in the world.

Instead, we have a transport system in crisis, a health service struggling with some vague programme of "reform" that only the most dedicated policy wonks can understand, and an English school system still in thrall to a discredited notion of "parent choice" that has in fact, in many areas, become a parental nightmare for all but the richest and brightest.

And if people do not like the ethos of propaganda and spin which surrounds the Blair foreign policy - where he at least shows signs of knowing what he is doing and why - he should perhaps give some thought to how much they will like it when he starts trying to apply positive spin to his recent domestic record.

I don’t know whether Tony Blair thinks of himself as a Churchillian figure, or just as the genial Bill Clinton of British politics. But it strikes me that he should be increasingly concerned about the possibility of becoming a British version of George Bush, sen - a leader who fights successful wars abroad, but finds in the end that the folks back home are more interested in the pay-cheques, schools, hospitals and transport systems that are the everyday stuff of democratic politics; and on which most leaders, in free societies, ultimately win or lose.



To: JohnM who wrote (75375)2/19/2003 11:29:48 AM
From: Rascal  Respond to of 281500
 
"Rather, we are here in such large numbers because you have yet to persuade us and there is too much at stake for us to any longer remain silent."

Brilliant.
I'll take 3 bumper stickers and a small sign.

Rascal@ thanthesword.com