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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (66743)	2/19/2003 10:43:26 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I hate counting corrective activity, which is why I typically get really quiet as soon as we start upward corrections in this bear, but in the spirit of Occam's razor, wouldn't the simplest count off the December high just be a double-three? Regardless of your preference, is there agreement on the following: 1. Off the October low, we have three waves up with overlap (distinctly corrective) followed by three waves down with overlap as of yesterday on NDX (also corrective) retracing about 62% of the first wave. The simplest Elliot explanation would be a flat in progress off October lows with an impulsive terminal wave C underway now (A & B now complete). I know people won't like the fact that we didn't correct deeper, so there's probably a "better" count, but the idea remains the same. It looks like a flat in SPX. Alternately, we could have wrapped up the October correction at the beginning of December, and we're in a weakly trending wave 1. If SPX has trouble generating the overlap we've seen in tech, that will be a major clue that December was the high, we're in a "1", and tech is in a leading diagonal sort of formation and we're pointed hard down. 2. The channelization in tech is obvious. Damn, I could kick myself so hard on this one. I saw that channel forming, but I was reluctant to buy a falling support line until it, well, showed some support. Then when it did, I didn't believe in it. The upper TL parallel to the lower TL should be solid resistance. I'll be selling long-side hedges if we get there, and watching for a hound. If it breaks up out of it, the bullish count will become my favored. If it can't make it to the line, then leading diagonal or third wave extension thoughts move up the list. On NDX, it's 1060 and dropping about 2 points per day. That's right in with some solid horizontal resistance levels. Take that out and you'll really impress me. Equivalent resistance at SOX 310. In the other direction, if we take out the recent low, it will be as part of a 100% retest of the non-tech lows, and it would lend more impulsive features to the move in SPX/DJX. A failure of the tech channel would be a bad thing indeed, and would come in tandem with failure of the non-tech October lows. BC