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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (28915)	2/19/2003 2:57:22 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 74559

Hi energyplay, In their Doom scenarios, bad events will happen in hte future AND NO ONE will do anything to stop it , or mitigate it, or recover. No one from government, the think tanks, bausiness, academia or the media will be even AWARE of the impending doom, and no effort made to avoid it. Not quite true from my perspective. Mr. Prechter (in particular) has always gone out of his way to indicate that in his projections, outside influences are somewhat powerless to significantly change any projected outcomes. In fact, he has gone to great lengths to point out that actions that have already occurred (historical) will have little to no impact on what he sees as inevitable. That said, I suppose these things ultimately boil down to an investor's personal belief system. Either you have faith in the man, or in the "science", or you don't. Personally, I remain somewhat skeptical of the truly extreme negative projections. But, I may very well be wrong, and these other folks may yet be proven right. I certainly hope that they're wrong. Trouble is, I may have to hang around for the next 5 to 10 years awaiting the actual outcome... <g> KJC

To: energyplay who wrote (28915)	2/19/2003 4:08:02 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<In the real world, preventinve action occurs all the time. After the financial crisis of the late 1980's higher reserve & liquidity standards for banks were established world wide, with strongly urged voluntary compliance. Value at Risk, VAR, was established as a standard methodology for assesing risk. VAR has lots of problems, but iot is a big improvement over the uneven practices before.> I think he believes that this made things worse not better longer term [although it was an imediate benefit... ultimately I also believe it lead to MORE lending]. <In their Doom scenarios, bad events will happen in hte future AND NO ONE will do anything to stop it , or mitigate it, or recover. No one from government, the think tanks, bausiness, academia or the media will be even AWARE of the impending doom, and no effort made to avoid it.> You mean a hyperflation instead of deflation?? I think that's why so many like gold here. Look what the government is ALREADY doing. If things spiral down from here they'll start sending out cash in the mail. <This doesn't mean the world is getting more perfect, but there is some (not total) learning occuring, and some preventive actions being taken.> What besides VAR would constitute 'more learning'??? DAK