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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (83688)	2/19/2003 11:47:12 AM
From: Tom Pulley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

....formula (or one remarkably similar) is well known among academics studying the market. John, do have a formula you could share with us? I'm interested in addition to a previous poster. Tom

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (83688)	2/19/2003 6:06:22 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99985

Demographics and multi-year Stock Market performance: Yes, the relationship you stated is similar but not identical to mine. My formula has a positive and a negative component which is not exactly the same as what was implied in your statement. Here's what it suggests for the next several years, keeping in mind that other short and intermediate term factors can significantly skew the results: * Demographic forces gradually transition from mildly negative to mildly positive as 2003 progresses. * Forces are mildly to moderately positive for 2004. * Forces deteriorate to relatively neutral in 2005, then turn sharply negative for 2006, suggesting a likely Bull Market peak in (second half?) 2005, followed by a major sell-off, possibly sharp.