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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (28397)	2/19/2003 11:39:04 PM
From: DeplorableIrredeemableRedneck	Respond to of 36161

for the us

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (28397)	2/20/2003 2:00:09 AM
From: habitrail	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

<<many will wonder what is happening>> Yeah, the game will be called musical houses.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (28397)	2/20/2003 9:35:40 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 36161

["when gold surpasses #400, I wonder what WonderBoy will claim in the way of correct calls"] ..."Wonder Boy" (that's 2 words JW & thanks for using caps and please use a $ sign, not a # sign on POG)- has never said that Gold can not & will not go to $400...quite the opposite actually. Once again... the "MegaBulls" see & hear only what they want to see & hear. vis a vie $400, even $500 Gold. 1. When & if it gets there - it isn't going there in a straight line - ie: 2. The Gold Sector like other volatile commodity cyclical sectors; is not, has never been, nor will it ever be - a buy & hold sector. - too much volatility in both directions, a history of violent corrections off of both interim & broad cycle tops, too many predictable swings in investor sentiment & far too often the sector becomes a haven for Hypesters & Penny Stock Promoters creating contrarian shorting opps both at interim and broad cycle tops. 3. Given all of the already acknowledged underlying positive "potential" drivers for gold...the correction in the USD, the looming Account Deficit, the still ongoing Bear Market, the Bubble in the Bond Market and innumerable Geopolitical and Global Economic Issues...when, or if any of the underlying fundamental drivers for gold unfold in the direction that drives Gold higher from this present very positive valuation range; it will take years, not months to play out. 4. No one is in any danger of missing any upside Trains. History has actually shown us, the most significant danger to investing in Gold is actually in staying at the Party for too long, or buying merely even one dip too many. Rule #1 - "Always be early to the Party, but never, never, EVER be caught hanging around at last call." 5. Hopefully when & if Gold makes it to $400 - "some of us" will have bagged another couple of 40 to 60 Point HUI swings in both directions to add to what is already safe & secure in the bank. Tokyo-JimWille; The main difference between me & you and some others here; is that I have no emotional, or political allegiance to Gold. It may as well be zinc, or copper...or natural gas. I may never trade Gold again for another 20 years... it all depends if the sector ever again presents another HIGH REWARD - LOW RISK cyclical opportunity. On the FUNDAMENTAL side, the significant difference between me and you and some others here; is while we all recognize and acknowledge the same positive underlying fundamentals for higher Gold prices, even significantly higher prices... I also recognize and respect the strength of the opposing forces and the battle ahead that will still need to be fought and won, before we see Gold move significantly higher. I see much doubt and many potential outcomes and you see absolute certainty and only one outcome. Predicting the end of the US Economy, the USD, the US Markets, or armageddon in the global Geopolitical scene; along with all of the other hysterical Gloom & Doom scenario's - isn't quite the "sure thing" that many of the hypesters are trying to portray. On the TECHNICAL side, lies the other significant difference here between me and you and many others; in that I believe - that once we ever see these 2 things in a commodity cyclical sector: 1. A DOUBLE TOP failure in the sector's stock indice - stocks rolling over for the 2nd time at the same technical resistance level - after significant upside runs. - and 2. A DISCONNECT in the sector stocks failing to follow the underlying commodity higher - to new highs. ...that you can not simplistically look to the charts for the next technical support levels ....you must look behind the chart to the tape and determine where the "real" battles of the tape were fought and where real "REVERSAL" strength is found. - and per my prior comments here - that lies at $307ish for Bullion and HUI 95-105 for the stocks. Many are pointing to $350, or $342 here holding, or even $330, or $320 as a level of significant support for POG...but, the reversal strength that I want to see isn't found untill $307...same with the HUI. Many see 125, or 115 as significant support - when actually there really was no significant turf fought for at those levels...HUI 95ish is where the bodies lie...maybe 105 will bring strong LT buying...but given the 2 occurances above...I would NEVER look for the 1st, or even the 2nd Chart support level to hold - in case we indeed are forming either an interim sub-cycle , or a broad cycle/secular DOUBLE TOP. At this point in THIS cycle; which has matured and is no longer "early cycle" - the Risk to Reward play is not to chase retracements, but rather to buy breakouts to new highs imho. Look at the 6 month chart for gold: kitco.com This is the "potential" textbook classic formation of a Head & Shoulders Top...and the right shoulder potentially leads straight to $307 imho. One must both ANTICIPATE that occurance and respect the potential that it may. As always; we shall only see as time unfolds. So Win the Race that the Market has put in front of us...and worry about the "rest" of the Race - if & when there indeed is a - "rest of the Race." Forever your Fightin' Irish, Yankee Imperialist - Great White Chihuahua Hunter~ $lider