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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (38899)	2/20/2003 3:06:34 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71174

[madtrader] Tue Feb 18, 3:23pm PST $SOX.X SMH INTC LLTC NSM MOT ADI Volume was light again, Nasdaq managed to pass Friday's volume by a hair. Needless to say, a lot of traders aren't convinced this bounce is of much of a consequence. Most are looking for the "real" bottom when October lows are either retested or broken. As for time? Most seemed to believe it is at the earliest in the middle of March. I am not sure if I care one way or another. One thing I have noticed though, is the relative strength of semiconductor names. Traders looking for beta tend to go for these names first. The usual suspects are KLAC, XLNX, etc. When I was going through charts during the weekend, and today, something didn't look right. I applied some trendlines, and it became clear. We have a clear divergence going on between SOX and SMH. If you connect the highs of early December and middle of January, you can draw a clear down trendline. SOX, along with NDX, COMPX is still under that trendline. Some might even suggest it is a wide channel. Perhaps due to the weighting in SMH that is different from SOX, SMH has clearly broken this down trendline today. The biggest name in both index is INTC, and it broke the trendline on Friday. This reversal is clear, and it perhaps serves as another clue that the best way to play semi names on the long side isn't SOX or with names like KLAC. This time around, the best names are the ones that have already broken this downtrend. INTC, LLTC, ADI, NSM and not very impressive looking MOT. All these are pure chip makers, and not the chip-equipment makers. Looks like the Street believe