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Non-Tech : Raptor's Den -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GrillSgt who wrote (8083)	2/20/2003 10:50:52 AM
From: sandeep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

Market better bounce here. Otherwise another 100pts down on dow can follow very quickly

To: GrillSgt who wrote (8083)	2/20/2003 11:15:45 AM
From: GrillSgt	Respond to of 10157

<<Well we have a very complicated cycle setting up for me. As of now I do not have a hold on the direction so I will continue to trade light and stay out of longer term trades>> Some facts: If it's an up...the first top is day 4-6. If it's a downer..the first top is day 1-3. Looking back at recent cycles it appears that the trader has the biggest advantage in the second half of the cycle and specifically the last 4 trading days. For a Down or Bear cycle lasting 13 days, expect the first half low to be about day 6 or 7 and the second half low on the last day, day 13. From day 6 on, look for a small rally with ~2 of the next 3 days up, and then a decline to end the cycle on the last 3 days. It is the last days that offer the edge. If they are to be down days as they were expected to be in the down cycle then one should be looking at a buying climax somewhere around day 10 or so. As the market is climaxing that day it will be a great opportunity to sell as OBV deteriorates. If OBV does not decline then look for a sell on weakness overnight or at the open. This is because the recent rally is over and the expectation and probability is high that the by the 13th day we will see a close below the mid cycle low close. For an up cycle expect the mid cycle high on the 6th or 7th day. Following that, after 2 of the next 3 days down, expect the rally to continue to the 12th day, hitting a peak above the previous peak with the last day of the cycle down. It is the days from the 9th day to the 12th day that the opportunity presents itself. * an up cycle looks like a camel with 2 Humps. the low close after Hump1 has to be above the close at the end of the previous cycle. * the low close after Hump2 has to be higher than the low close after Hump1 As you can see, we did not satisfy ** above since we did have a close that was below the last cycle low close. This is what has me on guard thinking this could be a down cycle disguised.