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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (17469)	2/21/2003 12:28:20 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 42834

"what about 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989 and 1990?" I was counting all the major allocation changes that I know of, as follows: 1982 right Late 1987 wrong Late 1990/early 1991 right Early 2000 right Late 2000 (QQQ) wrong Now that I look at the list, I see I gave him too low a batting average; it was actually 0.600. He was seriously underinvested from late 1987 to late 1990, with a gradual move to a fully invested position during the latter part of that period. If you want to count every increment as a separate bad call, I think you are stacking the deck. I agree that his market timing has not been shown to add sufficient value to be worth the effort compared to buy-and-hold with asset allocation. That is why I think the baseball analogy breaks down, because in baseball, a 0.600 batting average would be outstanding.