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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (8694)	2/20/2003 12:19:32 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95778

From Briefing.com: 11:40AM Above 200-Day : Major names crossing above their 200-day moving average today include XLNX, VSEA, CTMI, EXC. 11:05AM National Semi to cut 5% of workforce; selling information appliance unit (NSM) 15.24 +0.86: 10:30AM Rambus also benefits from CNET article (RMBS) 15.39 +1.51: -- Update -- Another factor being mentioned on RMBS is a CNET story detailing the demise of the Advanced DRAM Technology consortium, which had been created by Intel and several major memory manufacturers to develop DRAM technology that would compete with Rambus. The fact that this group has disintegrated is probably less important than it appears; its precursor JEDEC still exists, and the key issue remains Rambus's lawsuits against the other memory manufacturers. 10:19AM Rambus spikes on rumors (RMBS) 15.64 +1.76: A slew of rumors hitting RMBS; one is that they will be acquired by Infineon (IFX 6.89 +0.15) which has pulled back on this rumor; another is that an Intel-backed potential competitor has failed; RMBS is also at the Intel Developer conference today. With so many rumors flying, it's a good bet that none of them are true. 10:11AM RMBS spikes 18% on heavy volume : 10:02AM Marvell could see impact from Intel Gig-E product in second half - Solly (MRVL) 18.59 +0.29: -- Update -- Salomon Smith Barney says that INTC discussed its plans for a potential replacement for MRVL's Gig-E product at their developer forum; firm says this development could start to negatively impact MRVL by 2H03, and is not yet reflected in their model or consensus ests; also, firm remains cautious on MRVL's hard drive component biz for the April qtr due to seasonal and channel inventory factors. 9:42AM Asian handset makers challenged NOK/MOT: Fechtor : Hearing that research firm Fechtor Detwiler writes this morning about talk out of the GSM Congress in Cannes that second-tier Asian handset manufacturers (Sanyo, Sharp, NEC, Panasonic, Sony) are competing effectively with NOK and MOT for high-end handsets with consumer electronics (camera, radio, color screen); Fechtor says that high quality and low prices from these Asian firms could be a long-term negative factor for NOK and MOT. 9:30AM Qualcomm: China Unicom numbers disappoint; buy weakness --Cowen (QCOM) 34.99 -0.55: -- Update -- SG Cowen believes that QCOM can still make its total CDMA handset target for 2003, despite lower than expected subscriber additions by China Unicom. Firm notes that Jan was expected to be slow. Also says its discussions with China Unicom confirmed that CDMA handset subsidies ended in Jan. 8:57AM Cabot Micro may not win TSM deal (CCMP) 45.64: We are hearing that boutique firm BlueFin Research says it appears that TSM has selected JSR Micro for both their Cu Step 1 and Step 2 slurry process for their next-generation 90nm designs, which should begin to ramp in 2H03; according to firm, TSM's current incumbent for the 130nm design is CCMP. 7:58AM AMD "winding up" relations with UMC - Dow Jones (UMC) 3.14: Dow Jones reports that AMD indicated it may not build a joint-venture plant with UMC in Singapore as planned; however, an official at UMC denied that there was any change in their relationship with AMD. 7:43AM Cymer upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Merrill Lynch on valuation (CYMI) 32.72: Sees fair value at $37.50. (See also firm's semi upgrades at 7:32.) 7:32AM Merrill Lynch shifts to slightly positive stance on Semis : --Impact Call-- Merrill Lynch upgrades the following Semiconductor names to BUY from Neutral: AGR.A, ISIL, MRVL, MXIM, SMTC, TSM, XLNX. Firm believes that valuation is reasonable, if not highly attractive, while low inventory levels and low capital spending will tend to increase the industry's sensitivity to any improvement in demand. Firm also upgrading several stocks to Neutral from Sell: AMCC, ADI, BRCM, CNXT, INTC, PMCS, VTSS. finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ADI+AGRa+ALTR+AMAT+AMCC+AMD+BRCM+CCMP+CNXT+CTMI+CYMI+INTC+ISIL+KLAC+LLTC+LSCC+LSI+MOT+MRVL+MU+MXIM+NOK+NSM+NVLS+PMCS+QCOM+RMBS+SMTC+TER+TSM+TXN+UMC+VSEA+VTSS+XLNX+^IXIC+^NDX+^SPX+^VIX+^VXN+^STI.N+SMH&d=t Personally I think the SOX can continue to consolidate and rally until about the middle of next week. Upgrades aside there is just not enough volume in the market right now for a sustainable rally. I would really like to see the market sell off enough that the technical and sentiment indicators give readings that line up with previous short term bottoms. When that happens I could go long and stay long for a few weeks at least. RtS

To: Kirk © who wrote (8694)	2/20/2003 12:28:33 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95778

...and some of us have been out of the country. Let's keep posting anything that's relevant to the markets, especially as it relates to the semi field, with heavy emphasis on the SCE companies. For the most part, the discussions here on this thread are very entertaining to read, at least IMO. I like seeing the recaps and analysis from Briefing, as they are a very good reference point when reviewing the thread's posts. Since I was out of the country for a stretch, I think it's very nice to have the daily commentary. To change the subject slightly, I was in Europe and I think that there are some big mistakes being made by our "market gurus". I read a lot of talk about how the world is "US Centric" and that the global economy is too heavily dependent on the USA. I would have to say that I don't think this is truly the case. Obviously, if the US economic engine is running full steam we help pull the rest of the world with us. However, when the US train is running at a slow speed, like now, the rest of the world still gets along just fine, albeit a little worse off then if we're hitting on all cylinders. Once the global community gets past this current hurdle with Iraq, I think there's a very strong case for a major rebound throughout the world. Worldwide trade is being stifled by the uncertainty of the what will happen and how each country might be affected by the potential fallout. I think we have a domino effect approaching, one in which the world's economy substantially picks up as soon as the Iraqi situation is put to rest. Whether this is a few weeks or months away, I believe the rebound will be solid. As I see it, only a very long, protracted war or stalemate can put the breaks on this. I think we are at the brink of an enormous rebound. However, there is a trump card (or 2) that can bring this rebound to screeching halt. The next few weeks are critical and will greatly effect the lives of everyone in the world. We do live in interesting times! Michael

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