Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (28457)	2/20/2003 8:07:24 PM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Now after 2 years Slider is calling it over, on the basis of "HE SAYS SO". I don't think he's calling it over. He's saying that the risk/reward is not nearly as good as it was two years ago. The charts are finally showing signs of weakness. So now it might be a good time to look for the next great opportunity instead of chasing one. You have a lot of people jumping now. The time to jump in was two years ago.

To: mishedlo who wrote (28457)	2/20/2003 8:25:54 PM
From: habitrail	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Herding Cats Why call people naive until you have at least described the mechanisms for why your 5 reasons will drive someone into gold rather than somewhere else? <<To claim that gold is about "jewerly" is pretty damn naive IMO. Gold is rising because of 1) Inflation 2) A falling US$ 3) A world awash in US$ with a need to put them somewhere 4) Political uncertainty 5) Terrorism >>

To: mishedlo who wrote (28457)	2/20/2003 8:34:59 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 36161

sagging jewelry demand historically consistent with LT bull this is an hilarious argument made by those who pretend to understand this gold market, and need to pull at pathetic straws in order to fortify their agendas you'd think nobody studies history in this country well... nobody DOES study history in this country !!! one does NOT need for demand to be strong in every single segment within the gold world, NOT AT ALL historically, weak jewelry demand is precisely what we see when investment demand picks up in a big way the Gold Cartel has used the jewelry argument to the naive numbnuts who are on the correct side of the new longterm gold bull, near the top because that is where numbnuts typically buy, along with all the other illiterates utterly hilarious the last laugh comes when we (MishMan et al) sell our shares to these numbnuts when they finally figure it out my favorite reason has to do with inelastic demand combined with inelastic supply demand grows with rising price (investment side) supply diminishes with rising price (covering forwards) here are the major reasons why gold is rising: (jewelry is not among them) 1. real rate of interest has been near zero since Oct2001 2. rise in foreign holdings of US assets increases our vulnerability to foreign abandonment 3. money supply increased over 40% since Jan 2001, close to 100% rise since 1991 4. return to federal deficits from recession and wartime economy, security spending 5. rising world tension, desire for safer safe haven, the geopolitical threat to peace 6. Glass-Steagal Law repeal now heightens risk of financial cluster failure in progress 7. world perception of American institutionalized dishonesty 8. likelihood of systemic banking shock waves from debt collapse and derivative chain reaction 9. reduction of USDollar usage as both store of value, banking reserve asset 10. sharp increase of savings across Asia in the form of gold 11. Islamic world is planning gold-centric international commerce, distancing from USDollar 12. Bank for International Settlements has targeted the US dollar for a corrective decline 13. reversal of miner hedges, end of gold leasing, reducing supply 14. dismantled mining supply apparatus, from systemic price below production 15. paradox: high gold price leads to higher demand, and high price leads to lower supply 16. trade tariff resumption discourages global trading village concept 17. USDollar correction to relieve the trade imbalance could result in a currency crisis 18. accelerating worldwide currency turbulence 19. European currencies offer more attractive alternatives to USDollar, with Swiss Franc leading 20. the calendar date Sept 11th marked the turning point for USDollar in two critical years 21. rising costs from entire energy complex (crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline) 22. commodity trend reversal has begun, the beginning of a new longterm trend 23. Kondratieff Winter is gathering speed and force 24. divergence toward deflationary credit-based economy, inflationary cash-based economy 25. the parallel between gold’s rise in the 1970’s and 2000’s has many components / jim

To: mishedlo who wrote (28457)	2/20/2003 8:42:36 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Look you either believe the charts or not. you either believe the FA or not. Why can't you use both? Personally the longer the time frame the more fundamental my view, vice versa. I daytrade strictly from the charts, I invest strictly from the fundamentals. Having said that I'm still have a 30% weight towards the PM sector -- was 98% then 60% and now 30%. Fwiw, I dumped 30% into the American Utilities sector where I see tremendous upside. Have you looked at the way WMB moved today? How about RRI? Heck! Even a pos like MIR was flying today. ...and what has Kinross done for us lately? Btw, once the youts look toppy-- I'll probably shift my capital towards the transportation sector...I'm sure the airlines will get quite the pop in a cheap oil environment. ...and if oil doesn't get cheap again? I'll go long on gold towards the end of August. Regards, Frank P.