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To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (25565)	2/24/2003 7:08:31 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 25814

Long-term stability in the region will have a wonderful long-term affect on the global economy. Agreed. The same sort of studies were done in Europe in the mid '30s as a way to justify appeasement, including some done by leftist professors at the University where I went to school. The comparison to the 30's is valid if we consider the early 90's when Saddam Hussein occupied Kuwait. He was not appeased then, was he? The present situation is far more complex. I strongly believe that an occupied Iraq will allow the more moderate secular legislature to take greater control in Iran. That assumes a lot of things -- like, there will be little or no civilian casualties (aka "collateral damage") in Iraq prior to the US troops marching in. It also assumes that the motley group of Iraqi opposition will hang together. It also assumes that the Kurds, the Shias and the Sunnis will all stay united. In other words, it makes a hell of a lot of assumptions.