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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29030)	2/21/2003 1:44:11 PM
From: pogbull	Respond to of 74559

>>I am already counting on real estate going kaboom in a puff of smoke and fire, not just in a bad way, but in an absolutely mind numbing fashion, to be picked up at, say 35 cents on the cheapened dollar, converted from gold at USD 1,000 per oz<< Jay, you just described my dream scenario.<ng> Looks like gov't meddling will insure that it occurs in slow motion. Time will tell. John

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29030)	2/21/2003 5:14:55 PM
From: jrhana	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

During the last stagflation both gold and real estate did well- Until they began raising interest rates. FWIW I view the stagflation here as a prelude to an eventual inflationary boom But I am an incurable optimist

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29030)	2/22/2003 3:09:49 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Good evening Jay, "Real estate going kaboom " etc. Such a trend has certainly begun with U.S. office properties. But major European and Canadian real estate companies did reasonably well in 2002 versus 2001. I think the movement toward gold and oil/gas trusts is accompanied to a lesser degree by the movement toward land and such real assets. Nowhere in the world that I know about is residential real estate so vulnerable as in the U.S. because the interest rates are so abnormally low. This situation does not exist in Europe and Canada. Canada will shortly raise interest rates a fourth time, for example. Europe has not dropped them. In short I suspect, but am not sure, that the trend you are talking about is not world wide. Do you see this, for example, in continental China?