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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (127113)	2/21/2003 12:58:30 PM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 152472

compare that $800 phone of two years ago with the $700 Kyocera. what makes you think the Kyocera feature set will be able to maintain its value for so long? It wont be able to maintain that price for very long. My original post was simply trying to list some features that I think will be standard in six years. Actually, I think most of those features will be standard in quite a bit less time than that....probably around 4 years. I simply dont think that the average handset will cost $50 in that timeframe. Perhaps I underestimated the amount of features on the handset and will end up losing....but I really dont think that handset prices are going to drop as rapidly as John seems to think. ASP's tend to see that dramatic a decline when processor power overwhelms that which is needed by applications. The poster child for this is obviously Intel. They went years without seeing much of a drop in ASP....but as soon as applications slowed their need for increasing bandwidth, the bottom dropped out of ASP's. The same will eventually happen to Qualcomm....the only question is when? I just think that we have more than six years worth of applications to keep that from happening. Slacker

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (127113)	2/21/2003 1:15:22 PM
From: rkral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Darfot, re "so there's an $800 feature set down to free in like two years. compare that $800 phone of two years ago with the $700 Kyocera. what makes you think the Kyocera feature set will be able to maintain its value for so long?" IMO, that's a meaningless point. One needs to compare the ASP of phones being introduced today, to an estimated ASP for phones to be introduced two years from now. How to predict the future ASPs? Comparisons to the computer and TV markets seem reasonable, but I don't agree with your inferences. In my own personal experience, I'm paying about as much for computers and TVs today as I did when I bought the first ones 20 and 30 years ago. A little less today for a computer, and a little more for a TV. The cost of increased performance is keeping prices relatively constant, at least for devices I'm willing to buy. Given the time frame, price inflation is part of the equation as well. I expect a similar phenomenon in the cellphone market going forward. Ron