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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (17473)	2/21/2003 6:37:37 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 42834

I was using Dan G's list. suite101.com I counted all of the major allocation changes from August 1982 to the present, plus QQQ. You've written many posts criticizing Brinker for things he has said on the radio, and you just did it again, yet you don't want to count the 1982 bull call because it wasn't in a newsletter. You're the one who's leaving things out. Brinker was in the process of ramping up his equities when the Gulf War bear market started, but he didn't get up to 100% until after it was over. In your previous post you compared him to buy-and-hold with asset allocation. He doesn't need to catch every decline to beat that, as long as he doesn't get whipsawed out like he did after the crash of '87. You count QQQ multiple times and then wonder why I think you are stacking the deck. I counted it as a major call because it encompassed 20-50% of cash reserves, but I don't count reiterations as separate major calls. TEFQX was not a market timing call, it was a fund pick. I was talking about, and I thought Steve was talking about, market timing calls. All of this reinforces my point that the baseball analogy is not useful. It leads to endless arguments about "why did you count this as a swing, and why didn't you count that." It would be much better to just calculate how the timing calls affected the bottom line, and compare that to the S&P 500, as you do with your newsletter. At least that way there is some hope of obtaining a quantitative, non-subjective result. BTW, Steve's summary says there was a bull peak of 3016 on July 18, 1991. That happened in 1990, not '91.