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To: nspolar who wrote (67148)	2/21/2003 10:48:05 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 209892

nspolar, thanks for your comments on EBAY The time and thought you put into your response, with and the added links and indicator details is greatly appreciated. I enjoy this type of indicator based discussion, but we have to be careful or Shack might say we've got "more indicators than the space shuttle." <g> It's very true that "there is also more to a chart than just a couple of parameters one can select from a pop down menu." And I thank you for adding OBV, stochastics, and PPO to the picture. To begin my response, let me say that as far as whether EBAY is a good prospective short I think we are both correct:I think the crux of our difference of opinion comes down to one word - when. When you say "I think EBAY is going down, and going down hard over the next several months" that may very well be true. The point of my post is that right now might not be the time to do it because it hasn't shown clear enough signs of weakening, at least to me. As you can tell by the short length of my prior post, I wasn't trying to do a comprehensive analysis of EBAY: I was only adding a little technical support to jjstingray's opinion as to why would one not wait for clear signs of weakness before shorting, especially when there are so many issues that are more clearly in trouble and thus easier shorting candidates. I can't debate you on the reliability of the basis or the mathematical underpinnings of the CMF, but as the one parameter I mention, I was brining attention to the simple observation that when money flow is staying green and remaining in the area it has been in for the past few months as that chart showed, then it still showing signs of accumulation at the present. I've also noticed on many issues that when the CMF remains green, although stochastics may show overbought, they often remain showing overbought for extended periods until money flow tapers off and begins to go red. This may and very well could be coincidence but, whether it is or not, this is simply one factor I look at and have had good success with. Perhaps a difference between you and I might come down to trading style. A clue I noticed is when you mentioned that "PPO and stochs both look ready to cross over." I also would note that the RSI on your chart shows almost overbought, but not quite over the 70 mark yet. But my style of trading is not anticipatory; instead it is reactionary. I other words, I wait until crossovers occur and then go short rather than taking a chance on getting in too early. Sure, I may miss the exact top by a couple of days with my method, but my money isn't tied up while an issue consolidates or goes higher, as bobcor pointed out in a very nice post last November about the virtues of waiting patiently for a rollover before going short. Needless to say, I've learned my lesson by having my stops blown out many times by getting in too early in the past. If you're wondering what would convince me to short EBAY, I think that a break of its LT currently around 73 would be a good start, but maybe I wouldn't wait even that long if I got other indicators to tell me something. The most rudimentary guide I use on any stock (and this is not fine-tuned for EBAY) is that I would like to see two of the following three occur: (1) a crossover of the the 5ema - 8sma, (2) a cross down on the stochastics and (3) have the MACD go below the zero line. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pc5!b8][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G All that being said, watch today be the end of a blow off top, and with it starting to head down Monday for a multi-month decline. But for my approach, I'll wait to be safe and look for more signs of weakness before I consider any serious shorting on this one. FWIW, although we might have disagree or have different methodology, at least you can say I'm consistent: I made the same remarks about ASKJ several days ago. Message 18569118 I wish you the best on this trade and always.