Thanks, Claude, now we are getting somewhere!
CC: "May I suggest that you are confusing value and potential. I spoke about value. You speak about potential. Granted, the potential of a stock must be somehow reflected in its valuation. But there are limits and this premium must build gradually as the potential gets proven."
In my sarcastic way, I was trying to tell you how confused you appear also, applying an intermix of valuation (only because CKG has $25M) and potential on your promoted stocks, AND MOSTLY POTENTIAL at that. For MYNG, except for your last post, you talk mostly about valuation only, and only token mention of potential. So, there is a factor in there that you have not yet revealed to us.
Claude, if you will look at your old posts, you usually don't make a distinction between value and potential, as do most others. Your term, "build gradually", sure doesn't apply to SWG and CKG. Of course, I have noticed. When they run up, you comment something like "a little ahead of themselves", and "after this correction we are seeing, there will then be another leg up". All this, with no reserves and no positive cash flow. Aren't the prices of CKG and SWG based largely on potential, and less on value?
We agree that potential and value are both reasonable when talking about a stock price, we don't seem to agree on how much of each to apply to MYNG versus your favorites. And by golly, it is only human to throw in our bias, pro or con, based only on our gut feeling and the amount of effort we have put into DD on a stock. And it is certainly other factors, like the quality of a team, and their past success, that gives one a "gut" feeling about how much potential to go ahead and use. Claude, on some of your exploration stocks, excluding CKG, all they have right now is potential. And, their stock price is hyped up beyond reason, like SWG.
If you would just go to each thread and point out that $1.50 is all the value CKG has, and the incremental price increase of SWG from $2 to $12 is not justified, I would know you finally got my point. Just kidding. It would be interesting, though, if you occasionally broke the stock price down on other threads, giving value and potential breakdown.
Claude, you have to use mostly potential in evaluating these stocks. It is just a matter of opinion of how much market cap is reasonably justified for potential only.
You want some of your stock at or near where they are, and you want MYNG down, how much I haven't heard you say.
May I agree with your comment about paid advertising by GE being hype. But, Terry Turner's statement that there have been 32M ozs already produced in our area is not hype, it is proven fact. Much like you and others pointing out that one of your favorite explorers has found world class deposit in the past, or is right next to, or a mile down the road from a producing mine. It is value added by association. As a pointed question, could you tell me how much the 32M ozs previous production has gone into your determination of a current, reasonable market cap for MYNG?
Can you live with my definition of hype? Value is based on reserves, resources, and positive cash flow. Potential is based on hype, or the art of substituting other facts and opinions to justify or accept a current stock price.
One man's potential is another man's value. One man's hype is another man's promotion. No wonder stock prices jump up and down so much! You view MYNG price as too high, based on what you know. I view it as extremely low, based on what I and others know.
Claude, I really enjoy the debate. Obviously, it boils down to each person's definitions, and reasonable application of those definitions.
I sincerely hope you never recommend this stock. I am buying on the dips, and I will be buying as our production numbers keep coming in. As a buyer, I don't want anyone coming in with the hordes and driving up the price, reducing the number of shares I will end up with. On MYNG, I could care less if it is 0.25, and a more reasonable price would be 0.1. When it goes to its potential value, that type of a discussion will be a thing of the past.
gerald |
