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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (18719)	2/22/2003 10:36:55 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 206325

Sharp, my history w. OSX during 96-2003 is perhaps why I have not held longs here for more then a day or 2. I am perhaps the ONLY BEAR regarding the osx and its simply based on what I foresee as a cycle that many traders percieved for last year, marked up the stocks then the truth started to trickle in by early summer and we got a nice slap the last earnings reports that screamed these stocks were very overvalued. OSX should be starting from 50-60 area then I would be playing the long side, but since we never corrected the excess in this group while we are in the midst of HISTORICAL HIGH PRODUCTS, I believe the risk of crash or swoon is just too high. The move lately is not bullish in my eye's, looks like a blow off top coming in product and probably in OSX. Someone said there is a head and shoulders patern on the 3 year chart of the OSx and I see we are now heading below right shoulder...into shoulder season. Wish all much luck!

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (18719)	2/22/2003 12:33:49 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

<short the general market, hedge that short with some energy long, keep a little mining to spice things up, and keep a healthy dose of cash to limit risks.> Generally good advise. Of course I differ on the energy degree (I'm loaded) as this cycle has been particularly well set up: an exceptional perfect storm as opposed to a typical boom - bust. The cat is really out of the bag. I'd key on rigs getting over 1000, as that might help stabilize production some LATER. I think they will have to go offshore though to get larger production output, and we haven't seen signs of that yet. If offshore picked up meaningfully, I'd immediately adjust and temper things going forward, but until then, it's a continuing series of energy train wrecks coming. I'm very worried about Iraq and energy, as any further decline in supply will be a disaster of epic proportions. Finally I'd like to see a week go by without some TOHOE calling for $20 oil after Iraq, before I'd lighten up. The best bearish argument (there is no real supply argument now) on energy relates to a demand collapse coming off these high prices. There hasn't been much focus here on that, but should be. As you may know, I haven't been shy about shorting stocks in the last couple years. It's been a turkey shoot in fact. Having read your stuff (good IMO), I can see your worldview and philosophy is similar to mine. But, I am worried about how aggressive short sellers and bears have become. In some cases it smacks of manipulation. Message 18614325 I still like to be short the credit industry (MBI, RDN, CFC, MER, GS, MTG, FNM) but covered most (except MTG, RDN) last week. I'd be a little cautious on short selling until the sentiment indicators swing to better levels (VIX below 30, Rydex Ursa over .35, put calls under .65). As they used to say on Saturday Night Live, "Baseball (substitute gold) has been bery good to me". Sometimes I have to remind myself that gold doesn't know I own it. The move to 390 was excess in my view, and I saw your warning as correct. I think it's a consolidation phase now, and my approach is more bottom up, geared around company specifics: discovery and possible takeouts. There are some excellent (even if obscure) plays left in that sector.