Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (754)	2/22/2003 1:45:35 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 1617

LAST SUNDAYS INTENSIVE NEWSLETTER........ $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED FEB 16TH 2003 "BOUNCE? YES!--BOTTOM? NO!" Hi everyone hope this newsletter finds you and yours in good health and spirits...Our vacation was wonderful, much needed and so enjoyable..the Island of St Maarten is awesome..the food, wine, beaches etc..just sensational... Well where are we now? When I left I told everyone we would crack the 840 SPX area and take out the 836 Globex lows on the S&P's..Of course that's exactly what happened...That was a very tradable short using OEX-DIA's SPY's QQQ's etc for shorting the whole market...The markets are still trying in earnest to discount another attack and the War in IRAQ...It's impossible for us to trade that folks...Again I'm saying to you, please go to cash each night, scalp and daytrade each and every day for that nice "Days Pay"...and be safe...Why gamble? Really no reason to do anything more than what we're doing each and every day in the real time room... For everyone that is trying to reconfigure your trading accts, IRA's-401's- or your long term portfolio's you'll need to continue to scale out of your dogs, and raise cash levels for the big rally coming...You MUST be ready for this next best move...I still believe we'll test the OCT lows on all indexes and most stock charts...But right here we could bounce for 1-2 days...there is enormous overhead resistance on every single index chart that will cap any meaningful rally...As of today this market is a "short all rally" market till sentiment and resistance lines get taken out with VOLUME... Right now we are deeply oversold on all P&F charts, near the bottom of the 10 week trading bands I always talk about...While the NYSE & OTC Bullish Percents have NOT gone down to their respective Oct lows yet..So my thinking is they'll remove this short term oversold condition then resume the downtrend to complete this cycle downward thru a capitulation sell day with 2 billion shares and everyone in disbelief that this has happened to them again. I fully think that this will happen and soon...I've looked at all the indicators on P&F and they too are cascading lower and lower which is great..Because the bottom IS coming...I cannot predict it but I can envision it. That's the beauty of P&F we CAN SEE these areas when they get hit where the risk reward is leaning heavily toward the long side rather than the downside...I'll write about that event when it happens, and be assured it WILL happen... LET'S CHECK ALL THE P&F INDICATORS I WATCH WITH CURRENT PRICING AND OCT LOWS NUMBERS.. NYSE BP CURRENT---39.76%---OCT LOWS---24% OCT BP CURRENT---35.72%---OCT LOWS---22% OPTI BP CURRENT---36.08---OCT LOWS---20% THIS INDICATOR IS ALL STOCKS THAT HAVE OPTIONS... NYSE TW(TEN WEEK MVA) CURRENT---26.91%---OCT LOWS---14%...THE TEN WEEK MOVING AVERAGE OF ALL NYSE STOCKS... NYSE HI-LO INDEX CURRENT---34.34%---OCT LOWS---16%---BOTH THE TN WEEK AND HI LO ARE SHORT TERM INDICATORS...THEY TURN FIRST TO ALERT US... OTC HI-LO INDEX CURRENT---29.50---OCT LOWS---6%----WOW? FORGOT ABOUT THAT...THAT WAS REALLY WASHED OUT HUH??? Now what does this picture tell us? Well if it repeats the Oct low scenario then we are in for a murderous selloff on down the road...When? I have NO CLUE...It's impossible to predict time...But I can say that these P&F indicators are what i watch to buy and sell all thru the last 9 years...they work folks...Oh and btw...this does NOT mean it WILL happen...we could just rally up from here...Do you think that's the case? Not me!...I want to see a real opposite Bull Bear number like 28% bulls and 48% bears, I want to see the VIX index at 50, the VXN at 56, i want to see heavy selling volume as we plunge to and test the lows...that could wash out all of the above indicators and set us up for one whale of a rally...think about what those indicator numbers were at the Oct lows? and where they got too..Here's an example.. BP SEMI---OCT LOWS WERE AT 8% FOLKS...THAT'S 8%...IT THEN RALLIED OFF THOSE LOWS UP TO 74% WHERE I WARNED YOU ALL ABOUT THAT NUMBER...TYPICALLY WE ROLL OVER FROM THERE ABOVE 70% AND USUALLY BEGIN TO SET UP A RALLY BELOW 30%..I WAS THINKING WE'D STOP AT THE BREAKOUT LEVEL AT 45%..I WAS NOT CORRECT...AND WHERE ARE WE HERE ON THE SEMIS BP?...22%...WILL WE GO DOWN TO 8% AGAIN?...WE'LL SEE... So I hope this gives you a basic picture of the P&F indicators and what the potential is for a larger move down to test the lows and then reverse back up...The TW & HI-LO will reverse up first then the OPTI then the big boys...WE'LL BE THERE FOR SURE... OK LET'S CHECK THE MAJOR MARKET INDEXS...EVERY SINGLE INDEX HAD A MORNING DOJI STAR PATTERN WE SEE AT BOTTOMS...THAT'S A BEARISH BAR FROM WEDNESDAY THEN A HAMMER BAR ON THURSDAY, THEN A BIG BULLISH BAR ON FRIDAY..THAT 3 STICK PATTERN IS BULLISH SHORT TERM...HOWEVER THERE IS VERY HEAVY O/H R JUST ABOVE ON ALL INDEXES ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHARTS(DCC)..PLEASE CHECK OUT THE DCC AND THE 20 & 40 EMAS...GEORGE WILL DO THE FORKS FOR US AND WE'LL SEE HOW THEY CORRESPOND WITH THE CANDLES AND P&F... DJIA---JUST GAVE A LOW POLE WARNING LAST WEEK THAT'S BULLISH...AFTER A QUADRUPLE BOTTOM BREAKDOWN AT 7900 THAT I WROTE ABOUT IN THE LAST NEWSLETTER(GREAT SHORT THERE), WE TOUCHED 7650 NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND(10WK) AT 7550...THERE'S DYNAMIC O/H R AT 8150/8200...THE INDEX BP IS AT 14% THAT'S LOWS FOR THE DOW. SO WE WATCH FOR THE BOUNCE THEN THE REVERSAL BACK DOWN...THE 38.2% FIBO RETRACE FROM THE JAN TOP TO THE FEB LOW IS AT 3170.00...OH AND IF THIS MARKET IS CHANGING SENTIMENT THEN I THINK THE BOUNCE SHOULD TAKE US TO THE MIDDLE OF THE 10WK AT 8350 A FULL 50% RETRACE BACK UP. I DOUBT THAT... COMPX---THIS INDEX IS AT A DOUBLE TOP AT 1310---1320 WOULD BREAK THAT TOP OUT...THAT WOULD BE THE 1ST BUY SIGNAL OFF THE BOTTOM, AND MAKE IT A BOTTOM FISH TRADE..I'LL PASS...THE 20 EMA IS AT 1322 THE 40 IS AT 1345 THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WK AND THE 38.2% FIBO RETRACE IS AT 1365...THINK IT WILL GET THERE?. HEY IN THIS CRAZY MARKET ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE BUT I DOUBT IT...THE BOTTOM OF THE 10WK ON THE COMPX IS AT 1210 WE'RE AT 1310...I LOOKED AT THIS INDEX ON THE 20 POINT CHART TO SLOW IT DOWN...IT TOUCHED THE BSL LINE..THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE AND BOUNCED..1340 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...THAT'S THE 40 EMA..AND I THINK THAT WILL BE IT..."IF" IT EVEN GETS THERE? OH IT BROKE THRU A DESCENDING WEDGE LAST WEEK NICELY..TO THE UPSIDE THATS BULLISH TOO... SOX---AT THE 285 NUMBER THIS INDEX WILL GIVE A BOTTOM FISH BUY SIGNAL IT MIGHT GET TO 300/310 THE 38.2% FIBO RETRACE BUT WE'LL SEE...IT'S RIGHT ON THE 20 EMA DCC AND THE 40 IS AT 290... I REMEMBER WHEN IT TOUCHED THE BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE IN JAN AT 345...IT HIT 260 LAST WEEK...WE TALKED ABOUT THE BULLISH PERCENT(BP) SEMIS, AND I STILL THINK IT WILL BOTTOM LOWER...BUT I AM WATCHING THIS FOR ANY MEANINGFUL MOVE BACK UP..THIS BP LEADS THE MARKETS LONG WITH THE 2 SHORT TERM INDICATORS ON P&F... BTK---STILL WEAK TO ME IT NEEDS 335 FOR A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...345 IS THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WK...I WOULD SHORT IT AT EITHER PLACE USING THE BBH...DOWNSIDE 1ST TARGET IS AT 295, THE BP IS AT 27% THE TARGET BOTTOM IS AT 18%...THE 20 EMA O/H IS AT 335...LOTS OF R THERE...ANY BREAK OF 84 ON THE BBH IS A REAL DEATH BLOW...I THINK IT MAY RUN TO 88...I WOULD HIT IT THERE FOR THE BBH...USE MARCH/APRIL OPTIONS AT THE MONIES...RIGHT AT THE 88 STRIKE... NDX---AT SOME R HERE 20 EMA 985...THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WK IS AT 1020 BUT IT WOULD HAVE TO GET THRU THE 40 AT 1000 FIRST...THE NDX BP IS AT 34% OCT LOWS AT 14%...THIS INDEX IS WEAK TOO... SPX---THE BP IS AT 36% TYPICAL LOWS AT 18/20% AREA...BROKE THE DOWNTREND LINE AND HAD THAT PERFECT MORNING DOJI STAR...WHOA BE THE DAY THAT MIDDLE STICK/ HAMMER GETS BROKEN FOLKS...THIS INDEX WAS NEARLY 100% OVERSOLD NEAR THE BOT OF THE 10WK...AT 795...850 THE 20 EMA 860/65 VERY TOUGH O/N R THERE...I WILL WAIT FOR GEORGES READS ON THE FORKS FOR THIS DAILY CHART... BKX---THE BANKING INDEX IS VERY WEAK...YOU SHOULD LOOK FOR WEAK BANK STOCKS TO SHORT...ON ANY RALLY HERE..THE INDEX IS A SHORT ON P&F...675 WAS THE BOT OF THE 10 WEEK IT TOUCHED 695 SO VERY CLOSE..AND NEEDED A BOUNCE LIKE ALL OF THESE INDEXS THAT WERE SHORT TERM OVERSOLD...730-740 AREA WOULD BE THE EXPECTED BOUNCE... SPH3---WE HAD A NICE BOTTOM AT 805 REMEMBER THAT NUMBER..THEN A HIGHER LOW AT 815 ON FRIDAY REMEMBER THAT NUMBER TOO...844 IS THE DOUBLE TOP BUY SIGNAL WITH A POP TO THE 850 20 EMA AREA DOABLE...865 EXTREME IS VERY VERY HEAVY O/H R...THE 10 WK WAS AT 792 SO 805 WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE 100% OVERSOLD AREA...I THINK YOU CAN SEE WHAT'S ABOUT TO HAPPEN...BUT WE'LL JUST DAYTRADE IT...PERIOD.. NQH3---TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK LAST WEEK, RALLIED UP THURS AND FRIDAY...1010 HARD R THERE 1020 THE MID 10 WK...WATCH THE ACTION IN THAT AREA MAY BE A GOOD SHORT FOR THE QQQ'S...RIGHT THERE... VIX---IN A TRIANGLE RIGHT NOW...HIT 40 AND LIKE I SAID HEAVY O/H R THERE AT THE TRIPLE TOP..FOLKS 41 IS NOW A QUADRUPLE TOP B/O..THAT WOULD BE VERY NEGATIVE...WATCH 34/35 AREA FOR THE PULLBACK NEXT 1-2 DAYS...THE RISING BSL LINE IS AT 33 SO SOLID SUPPORT THERE... VXN---THIS CHART IS SETTING UP FOR A POP HERE SHORTLY..CAME OFF THE LOWS AT 41 THEN RALLIED BACK UP HARD RIGHT TO THE BRL LINE AND SOLD OFF LAST WEEK TO 49 A 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN..47 IS A NORMAL MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK PULLBACK(PB)...NOW IF IT REVERSES BACK UP AND PRINTS 53 THAT WOULD BE A BIG TIME EXPLOSION... AND HOW ABOUT THIS FOLKS...THE VIX PRINTS 41 AND THE VXN 53 AT THE SAME TIME..THAT WOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE CAPITULATION SELLOFF I AM LOOKING FOR...BE ALERT AND SET ALERTS..THIS IS A TRADABLE SHORT BIG TIME... OEX---OK LET'S TRADE THIS BOTH WAYS...A PERFECT MORNING DOJI STAR...IT'S GOING HIGHER HERE SHORT TERM MAYBE 1-2 DAYS...WE COULD TRY A QUICK TRADE LONG THIS WEEK...IN FACT JUST A SCALP INTRADAY TRADE USING THE FEB 425 CALLS...OXB-BE..COST TO YOU ABOUT $7.00-8.00 BUCKS OR $700-800 FOR 1 CONTRACT...IF WE TAKE IT EARLY TUES WHAT I THINK WE "COULD" GET IS A POP TO THE 40 EMA AT 440..ONE WARNING WE HAVE TO BREAK THRU THE 20 EMA FIRST AT 430...YOU COULD USE THE 420 STRIKE TOO..USE LIMIT ORDERS ONLY...AND THIS IS FOR SCALP LONGS ONLY...THEN WE HIT IT FROM THE TOP AND USE THE MAR PUTS WHEN WE ROLL OVER...THE MAR PUTS MAYBE SWING TRADES WE'LL SEE...I THINK YOU COULD SEE 50-100% PROFIT IN 1 DAY OR 2...THE REASON I LIKE THIS TRADE IS BECAUSE THIS INDEX ACTUALLY "DID" HIT THE BOTTOM OF THE 10 WK AT 410 RIGHT NEAR 400 CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ME FOLKS..IT ALSO BROKE OUT OF A DESCENDING WEDGE TOO ON THE DCC...WE LOOK GOOD FOR THIS TRADE LONG... HERE IS A LIST OF STOCKS I WOULD USE FOR POSITION OR SWING SHORTS WHEN WE BEGIN TO ROLL OVER AGAIN...BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR THIS RALLY TO FIZZLE... BBH---QCOM---LLL---JNJ---BBBY---DPMI---INVN---CCU---PIXR--COCO---MCHP---AXP--ONE---WFMI---PG......... THESE STOCKS ARE ALL GOING TO RUN INTO O/H HEAVY R ON ANY RALLY UP...USE IT TO SHORT ANY ONE OF THEM...YOU CAN USE "IN THE MONEY" PUTS FOR MARCH/APRIL ONE STRIKE ABOVE THE PRICE WHEN YOUR READY--- APRIL IS BEST GIVE YOUR SELF SOME TIME...I LIKE THEM ALL AS POTENTIAL PUT OR SHORT PLAYS...DO SOME HOME WORK AND GET ON BOARD.. HERE'S OUR WATCH LIST FOR THIS WEEK.... MSFT---SPLITS TUES 49 THE 3 BOXREVUP---51/52 AREA COULD GET HIT HERE...THE 40 EMA IS AT 50.50 RIGHT AT THE BREAKDOWN AREA A GOOD PLACE TO SHORT IT THERE...BUT IT'S GOING TO POP ON TUES FOR SURE...49 THE BTL---47.60 THE SST... AMGN---I THINK THIS STOCK IS GOING TO BREAKOUT THIS WEEK...IT'S HELD LIKE A ROCK ALL THRU THE CARNAGE...53.23 THE BTL---I'LL TAKE THAT LONG TRADE...51.90 THE SST... QCOM---HELD 33 WHERE SOME S RESIDES...36 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP...SET'S IT UP AS A SHORT...AFTER BREAKING THAT 35 AREA...35.40 THE BTL---33.95 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 33 IS DEATH AGAIN... QLGC---I AM SHORT THIS ONE AND MAY ADD OR DUMP ON TUES I'LL SEE...IT'S AT THE 20 EMA AND THERE'S GAP RESISTANCE AT 35.25...36 IS THE 3BXRVUP...IT'S IN A BEARISH CATAPULT FORMATION ON A BOUNCE HERE...STILL A SHORT...35.25 THE BTL..AND MUST GET TO 36...33.90 THE SST...VERY WEAK CHART BUT SHOULD BOUNCE NICELY.. EBAY---AS STRONG AS AMGN..DO NOT THINK I'LL SHORT THIS ONE AGAIN...LOL HAHAHAHAA...76 THE BTL...I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE...LOOKING FOR 80 MARKET WILLING...74 THE SST... EXPE---I AM SHORT THIS ONE TOO...VERY VOLATILE CHART..I MAY EXIT AND THEN HIT IT HIGHER UP..IT SHOULD BOUNCE....I THINK IT WILL BREAK THE BSL LINE SOON, IT JUST BOUNCED OFF IT LAST WEEK...60.50 THE BTL---59 THE SST... GNSS---VERY OVERSOLD HERE..AND THE LAST 3-4 VOLUME STICKS AS IT MOVED LOWER WERE LIGHTER...I THINK WE CAN GET 2-3 POINTS HERE LONG, MARKET WILLING...12.35 THE BTL--I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE LONG...11.20 THE SST... KLAC---10 DAY SIDEWAYS BASE WITH A SOLID BULLISH BAR ON FRIDAY..THEY SAID TODAY THE WORLD WIDE SEMI'S ARE UP LARGE FOR DEC...NEVER HEARD SO MUCH CONFLICTING INFO FLOW...MY SOURCES SAY THINGS ARE "GOOD"...KLAC TOUCHED THE BSL LINE LAST WEEK...35 THE BTL---I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE LONG...33.45 THE SST... PIXR---BROKE A QUADRUPLE BOTTOM AT 51...AND BROKE THRU THE BSL LINE BOTH NEGATIVE...52.65 THE BTL...51.45 THE SST...54/55 COULD BE THE SS AREA...YOU WOULD USE THE APRIL 60 PUTS... YOU CAN GET ALL OPTION SYMBOLS ON THE WWW.CBOE.COM SITE... AXP---WHAT WITH THE BKX IN TURMOIL AND THIS STOCK CHART LOOKING WEAK HERE..IT COULD BE A NICE SLOW MOVER USING PUTS...33.75 THE BTL...35 THE 3 BXRVUP AND THE BRL LINE RIGHT THERE...SHORT IT IF IT GETS THERE USING THE 40 PUTS..MAYBE GO OUT TO MAY/JUNE, THIS DOES NOT MOVE FAST...32.60 THE SST... JNJ---THIS CHART IS IN REAL TROUBLE...SHORT ANY NICE BOUNCE...IT BROKE LARGE SUPPORT AT 52 AND BROKE THE BSL LINE TOO..NEGATIVE...52.60 THE BTL---54 THE MID OF THE 10 WK...AND THE 40 EMA AREA...51 THE SST..I'LL TAKE THAT RALLY UP TO SHORT...USE THE 55 STRIKE...PUTS FOR APRIL OR MAY... LLL---BROKE HUGH SUPPORT ARE AT 41...ANY BOUNCE SHOULD BE SHORTED...AND IT WON'T BE MUCH...39.90 THE BTL...42 IS THE 3 BOX REV UP..NOT SO SURE IT WILL EVEN GET THERE..IF NOT SHORT IT HARD OR BUY PUTS..MAYBE THE 40'S...45'S?...38.50 THE SST...A NICE ONE TOO...I'LL TAKE IT IF SOMETHING HAPPENS OVERNIGHT HERE... PG---THIS CHART LOOKS LIKE AN ACCIDENT WAITING TO HAPPEN...OH IT WILL BOUNCE WITH THE MARKET BUT IT'S A CERTAIN SHORT...84.60 THE BTL...85 THE 3 BOX REV UP AND THE BRL LINE IS RIGHT THERE...82.90 THE SST...ANY BREAK OF 81 AND BOMBS AWAY...USE THE 90 PUTS APRIL MAYS...BUY 1 OR 2 LET IT RALLY UP FIRST... IBM---MANHOLE ON THURSDAY LAST WEEK..MEANING THEY SPIKED IT DOWN HARD THEN REVERSED IT UP TRAPPING THE SHORTS, THEN FRIDAY JAMMED IT ANOTHER NAIL......78.25 THE BTL---I'LL TAKE THAT TRADE LONG...76.50 THE SST... RMBS---RALLIED UP 19 BOXES ON P&F..CAME BACK DOWN 8 SO FAR...10 WOULD BE A HIGH POLE WARNING..HOWEVER I LIKE THIS CHART SHORT TERM FOR A LONG...14.20 THE BTL..I'LL TAKE THAT...THAT'S A 3 BOX REV UP...13.10 THE SST... LLTC---HEY NO ONE HAS TO HIT ME OVER THE HEAD...THIS STOCK IS STRONG AFTER BREAKING DOWN IT BROKE A SPREAD QUAD BOTTOM BUT HIT THE BSL LINE AT 25...IT JUST DID REVERSE BACK 3 BOXES AT 28 THAT'S POWER FOLKS....29.10 THE BTL---I'LL TAKE IT...LONG----27.70 THE SST...30/31 IS THE TARGET MARKET WILLING SHORT TERM... SYMC---HELD THE DOUBLE BOTTOM AT 44 SO FAR...45.40 THE BTL...44 THE SST...LOOKS LIKE IT WANTS TO BREAKDOWN SOON... INTU---THIS P&F CHART IS A SHORT ALL RALLY CHART...TOUCHING THE 20 EMA RIGHT NOW...45 THE BTL---43.60 THE SST...45/46 THE SHORT AREA IF IT GETS THERE... IDPH---CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK HERE BUT IT IS SHORT TERM OVERSOLD...30.40 THE BTL---32 THE 3 BOX REV UP...29.25 THE SST... ERTS---CHART IS AWFUL....STILL HAS ROOM TO FALL...51 THE BTL---49 THE SST...47 A BAD BREAKDOWN THERE...COULD GET TO 52/53 AREA... OK THAT'S IT FOR THIS WEEK...STAY HEAVILY FOCUSED ON ALL TRADES...USE STOPS... I WANTED TO SAY WHAT WITH THAT SEMIS NEWS WE COULD GET A POP IN KLIC(OUR MASCOT STOCK) AND THE EQUIPMENT MAKERS..IF IT CAN GET ABOVE 5.50, I THINK WE CAN GET BACK TO O/H R AT 6.45/50 AREA...I'LL TRY IT LONG TUES AM PRE MARKET IF WE ARE NOT GAPPING UP TOO HARD.. THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS -------------------refreshing-----------------no caps..lower case one word...i'll send out the admins new number and if I forget you admins just e-mail me for the number or ask other admins... see you in the room on Tues, we got 25 inches of snow here, so i'll be here foreverhahahahahahahaha best regards jerry jerry olson www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net --------------------------------------------------------------------------------