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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (18769)	2/23/2003 9:05:43 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 206107

Frank, thanks much appreciate others voicing thoughts regarding other side. Personally it too bad that we have such high products here. It will crush any recovery in the next 3-6 motnhs if not longer. I have wondered why OPEC screamed that they should not open the valve, but that they did anyway back in Nov,then in Dec. They meet in Jan, and thye increased again, but there is no way they did. These greedy folks over there are killing themselves, since DEMAND will be cruhed with such high prices. Have you noticed OPEC has been very quiet lately probably because the world is currently in shock at the price of the products. I actually think OPEC is holding back production. Its the only rational explantion. Good luck

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (18769)	2/23/2003 9:20:52 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206107

Frank - I dont suppose you recall the Lehman spending survey where they industry said they would be increasing spending in 2003 on the international side? Which I suspect is mostly long term oil projects. The survey was based on WTI is the mid 20's I believe and NG <$4. The key variable to watch is not activity levels in oil drilling, but activity levels in NA NG drilling. In three months US NG drilling will be 100+ RIGs higher and the service stocks will move accordingly IMO. Energy prices are only a leading indicator of future cash flows and spending by E&P's. How much the market wants to anticipate future spending is the unknown, but presently I do not see a disconnect between expected future activity and OSX prices. ME crude will start arriving, and just in time because March will continue with very high distillate demand I suspect. NG will be priced high enough to ensure that and the East Coast has very low NG stocks.