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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (18781)	2/23/2003 11:31:21 AM
From: Frank	Respond to of 206100

Russ--that was a very well thought out post--Frank

To: russwinter who wrote (18781)	2/23/2003 7:21:55 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206100

Russ, I second Frank's comments. Nice post. >>> That hardly marks peak valuation with the epic crisis that is unfolding. The market has been slow to respond, no doubt about that. <<< I'd like to comment on the two thoughts listed above. With regard to valuations; can we expect to see peak valuations in a bear market? Or, does the condition of the market, (economy), make any difference to valuations? I'd like to hear some input on that if anyone has any. Your second comment about the market being slow to respond has more to do with fear than anything else, in my opinion. I think most people would agree that war is coming. I think most people would also agree that the markets will take a hit initially when it does. There are those who believe any hit taken will see a quick recovery. Then there are those, like me, who think it's a better risk to reward play to wait and not take the initial hit at all. I plan to start deploying my cash once the war is underway. (Within a day or two, anyway.) I do have a couple of smaller positions open at this time, but I plan on being more heavily invested after the war is underway. There are many comparisons about how a sector responded last time an event occurred, or what happened the last time prices hit this level. Then there's always the comments on what's different this time. My style of trading is to eat the elephant, one bite at a time. I look for the short term trade, then see if it has legs to go intermediate. If not, I get out. If it does, I stick with the trade. With my style of investing, I don't look at what may be different this time. I must focus on the similarities. I always look for the common denominator in the markets. What I can always count on to be the same, is people's reactions to events pertaining to fear and greed. Uncertainty creates fear. Fear will drive prices quicker than any other indicator, fundamental or technical. I think we can expect to see fear drive the market in the coming weeks. I think this will stunt the potential run the OSX is in the process of trying to make. Once the war is underway, I think the fundamentals will have a larger impact on future price movement. I will need to see the buyers continuing to show up though. To me, it's a matter of timing. The buyers showed up on Friday, I think that was a good time to buy for a short term trade. The next 2 or 3 days will determine whether someone like me should cash in or give it another few days. If I see heavy selling, excellent fundamentals or not, profits should be taken, in my opinion. Then it will be time to wait for the market to quickly pick up on the fundamentals. dabum