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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (8146)	2/23/2003 1:31:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10157

Comments? safehaven.com Conclusions 1. The pattern since 27 January is an IRREGULAR FAILURE. It is a typical wave two in a BEAR MARKET. Nothing in the pattern suggests bullishness. The strength seen last week is due to the wave two-consolidation pattern. Wave two completions generally have strong bullish sentiment and often give signals of continuing bullishness. For a wave three to have a strong downward drive, it requires that many traders to be on the wrong side at wave two completions. You cannot have a strong third wave down without long liquidation. 2. The up move of the lat two days from 806.39 is the “C” wave of the of the IRREGULAR FAILURE pattern. In a number of related markets there is wave fourth wave infringements into wave one in this wave, creating a WAVE THREE EXTENSION TERMINAL. This is a BEARISH. 3. For the market to reverse, the S&P has to climb above the Powell U.N. session bifurcation. That would create an internally inconsistent IRREGULAR FLAT. It is a pattern of confusion. To overcome short-term bearishness, the S&P would then have to climb beyond the 61.8% of the fall from January 16. That would remove the immediate BEARISHNESS but not the major bear market. It may result in a more complex correction. After establish a substantial base and breaking upwards there would be a possibility of a new BULL phase. At this stage, this is assumption is premature. 4. It is likely that “C” wave completed on Friday with a fifth wave failure at 80.9% of wave one – a less common PHI relationship that is more common in TRIANGLES. 5. The conclusion is that the S&P will sell off on Monday from open. If it does, it will be with increasing momentum. There is a less likely possibility that on open it will raise to 857, where the fifth wave equals wave one, and then sell off. Price acceptance above 857 will suggests that the short-term view is wrong. 6. If the interpretation is correct, the next down move is the most volatile of Elliott patterns. In this stage of Elliott is where panic moves are apt to occur.