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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (18983)	2/24/2003 10:42:27 AM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 23153

Jim, That RRI is once again a pure animal. Glad I'm in for Round #2. OMG is gifting me with Round #3, thank you, thank you RWS. Reread the bank credit piece; I don't think he said the bull is back but rather a cyclical buying oppo may be coming, but in a bottoming market. No news there. I actually thought there was enough wiggle room in the Bank Credit discussion to allow for most any result: "A cyclical buying opportunity in equities is approaching. The liquidity environment is extremely favorable and investors should start to focus on the prospect of a slowly improving earnings picture, as current geopolitical tensions ease." Approaching? Yes, but when? Current geopoly tensions are going to ease? Funny, they haven't been easing for the last 8 years for some reason. Again when? This doesn't sound very bullish to me, but for those willing to put in the time to learn TA, discipline themselves (whips & chains), then it could be a profitable era until "the next bull market" gets underway, sometime before 2010, I suppose: "At best, stocks are likely to trade within a broad range for several years. Achieving decent returns will depend on successful market timing and good sector as well as stock selection. The U.S. equity market is caught between powerful opposing forces, and there is considerable uncertainty about how it will all play out. On the positive side, the liquidity environment could hardly be more favorable, the valuation excesses of the bubble years have been largely unwound, and the deep earnings recession has ended. On the negative side, the market has not become unambiguously cheap, as typically happens at the end of a deep bear market. Also, investors appetite to own stocks may have been permanently damaged, implying that it could be difficult for a new bull market to gain traction. Meanwhile, there is a wide range of opinion about the outlook for the economy and earnings, and about geopolitical developments. From a long-term perspective, the U.S. equity market will, at best, be in a broad trading range for many years." If it turns out the bear isn't dead and someone asks this guy about what he wrote he can just go to the text, point out a couple of things which didn't happen (still "approaching" though) and be perfectly accurate. Kb