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Non-Tech : Raptor's Den -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bcrafty who wrote (8166)	2/24/2003 2:10:28 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

my problem with $vix is the standard interpretation is based on a bull market perspective. if the base sentiment in the market is genuinely bearish then complaceny in vix doesn't mean we're going up, it means people are comfortable with the market going down. looked at that way, $vix should be looked at as spiking lower from higher base levels, not spiking higher from lower levels as was prevalent during the bull phase. we should then be looking for ultra-complacency as places to bounce from, not "panic" spikes to short from. clearly the sentiment necessary to produce this effect will lag the market significantly. i do not know if we are there yet, but if not, i doubt we are very far away from it. all just imo.