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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (98214)	2/24/2003 9:31:36 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Joan, <<<One of their applications messed up my computer >>> Which one? <<<market was sick today, what happened>>> Bear market unfolding I guess.

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (98214)	2/25/2003 3:45:46 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Joan, possible bright scenario (only possible) from Steve Roach: morganstanley.com ... As the resident bear, it is easy to get caught up in the angst of a world on the brink. And so it is probably even more critical for me to put myself through an out-of-body experience and contemplate the upside. Yes, the war could go well -- quicker and without all the unintended consequences enumerated above. The world could then come back together in celebrating the end of a tyrannical regime. World equity markets would undoubtedly rally -- ironically, as everyone expects -- and the confidence factor would swing from negative to positive in a flash. A concomitant plunge in oil prices would follow, providing the functional equivalent of a large tax cut for the world economy that could then spark an unleashing of animal spirits. With aggressive policy stimulus the icing on the cake, the global economy could quickly morph from bust to boom. I cannot rule out such a possibility, and there is a part of me that fervently hopes it will come to pass. Unfortunately, it’s not the analyst part of me. As I currently see it, the risks on the downside outweigh those on the upside by a factor of three to one. But should circumstances change and a new wave of global healing commence, my mea culpa will be loud and clear. And we will then do an about-face and take our numbers back up. We live in uncertain and frightening times. More than ever, it may pay to be nimble. ...