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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: foundation who wrote (32812)	2/24/2003 10:16:08 PM
From: foundation	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196822

re: Europe and EDGE ========== Nokia offers Europe a fig leaf - that is not sufficiently expansive to cover its tender parts. "Build EDGEfantasies to complement* wCDMA."* Will there be a successful 3G subscriber count at any carrier? How few will even try a commercial launch this year? It will be starkly clear, by the end of 03, that GSM subs are not - and can not - migrate to wCDMA in any reasonable time frame... that there is no process of migration. If Europe embraces the speculative upgrade - and absorbs the hardware costs - without wCDMA proving its future by proving a financial business plan, what remains of the wCDMA expectation bubble bursts. Especially as CAPEX spending slides from 3G to 2G. (There's only so much to go around.) Without the illusion of imminent wCDMA, the upgrades would be seen for precisely what they are - a weak attempt to plug the dyke. Europe may muddle through... provided they survive their bankers and the write-downs. But China - then all Asia - will be lost. Europe has kindly provided the object lesson: The prospect of China-scale wCDMA network builds is a joke. Would Telecom and Netcom opt for GSMGPRSEDGE with perhaps wCDMA in the cities? Unlike Europe, there is and will be true 3G competition in China. Can Mobile risk following Europe's example? Would Mobile step over the EDGE? If Europe, and their bankers, were to accept the detour, would any China carrier follow? And China rules Asia. And everything changes...