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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (13496)2/26/2003 3:28:07 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Nation has cause for moral reflection

By ANTHONY B. ROBINSON
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER COLUMNIST
Wednesday, February 26, 2003

Whatever else may be said about the national debate over war with Iraq, it may be provoking a new level of moral reflection. We appear to be asking, "What are our guiding moral values?" Different people would suggest different values. My list is not intended to be exhaustive but evocative. Moreover, it is intended to point to values that seem both urgent and at risk at this time in our nation's life.

My hunch is that the mounting resistance or ambivalence about war with Iraq owes to a deep reservation many people hold about what the Bush administration has articulated as its doctrine of pre-emption, that is, that we can attack those who have not attacked us but might do so.

This strikes many as simply wrong. While history will confirm that the United States, like many nations, has initiated armed conflicts, we have never done so on the scale being contemplated. Historically, Americans have been slow to embrace war. We value peace and restraint.

Another value deeply woven into the American soul is stewardship, the notion that we don't own the Earth or the land and have the responsibility to steward a trust. It is surely an oddity that so many contemporary conservatives seem not to recognize "conservation" as a cognate of their chosen identity.

Conservation, care, aversion to waste are or once were American values, something Republican President Theodore Roosevelt understood. I gather SUV owners are feeling put upon (I don't blame them so much as the auto makers), but generations to come will undoubtedly scratch their heads in wonder at how vehicles that get 13-15 mpg and pollute unnecessarily were embraced with such abandon, not to mention tax subsidies, at this historical juncture.

Neighborliness also seems part of the American experience. Often we express this in face-to-face ways but Americans have also, for a long time, understood that we care for our neighbors by offering some kind of social safety net. We aren't a people who go our merry way while some are without home, health or food. Or are we? No human society will ever be without people who are in need of help, sometimes short-term, often longer. And yet, year after year now, more threads are pulled out of our safety net, whether by "reforms" or budget "efficiencies."

Fairness, I would argue, is another core American value. True, America has never been fair for some, particularly Native and African Americans. Yet fairness has still been an ideal, albeit imperfectly realized. One expression of it has been the notion that our collective bills, aka taxes, should be borne fairly by all. And yet there is little doubt that facing this value, the order to "about-face" has been sounded. We continue to march in the opposite direction with tax packages that place a disproportionate burden on those who have the least. Washington state adds to this flaunting of fairness with what is arguably the nation's most regressive tax structure.

Character is not easily defined, but it is the kind of thing that we know when we see it, or when we do not. Character is congruence between the inner and the outer person, the private and the public being. Character is a life rooted in enduring values, not in what is hot today but forgotten tomorrow. Character, at least sometimes, means choosing what is difficult rather than what is convenient. In many ways, the contemporary and ubiquitous cult of celebrity is the stark opposite of value of character.

A person and nation that have character will recognize their own limitations, failures and need for correction and grace. Katherine Lee Bates captured this in her line in "O Beautiful for Spacious Skies" (America the Beautiful): "America! America! God mend thine every flaw." It is perhaps no accident that "God Bless America" has been favored over Bates' more tempered national hymn in recent years.

Too often today leaders seem either unwilling or unable to assess our nation and its life critically and to assist us in holding ourselves to account with a developed capacity for self-examination. Abraham Lincoln, the president whose moral stature looms largest, refused during the Civil War to claim that God was on his side. Rather he prayed that, "Stumbling and struggling through human life, trying to discern the signs of the times, we might perchance tilt from time to time toward God's side."

Finally, I contend that a core value of America has been modesty. We are not, by and large, people interested in flaunting ourselves. Yes, there have memorable exceptions. But a decent self-restraint expressed itself in how Americans lived materially, sexually and in civil society. Such modesty is close to the aforementioned virtue of character, but like that virtue, modesty may be honored today, if at all, largely in the breach.

Peace or non-aggression, stewardship, neighborliness, fairness, character, modesty and a capacity for self-examination. These describe the Americans whom Alexis de Tocqueville examined and celebrated in his famous 19th century essay. Do they describe America today? Do we know what our core values are? Or have we lost something in the march to greatness, power and pre-eminence? When a person or nation loses its moral compass, it becomes very difficult to find the way home. It may be time to move forward to the basics.
__________________________________________

Anthony B. Robinson is senior minister at Plymouth Congregational Church: United Church of Christ in Seattle. E-mail: trobinson@plymouthchurchseattle.org



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (13496)2/26/2003 3:40:40 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Iraq War Cost Could Soar, Pentagon Says

When planners add the expense of an extended occupation and aid to allies, estimates could hit $100 billion, or twice those of a month ago.

By Peter G. Gosselin and Robin Wright
Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
February 26, 2003

WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon has begun telling the White House and Congress that defeating Iraq and occupying the country for six months could cost as much as $85 billion, according to sources — considerably more than what senior administration officials have been saying in public.

Combined with aid for regional allies such as Turkey, the price tag for the conflict could top the $100-billion mark, twice the war costs cited just last month by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and an amount that the White House dismissed as outlandish last fall.

And the tally could rise further. Indeed, some close to the process say war planners have no firm grip on the conflict's final costs, a fact that is causing consternation among administration policymakers as the nation edges closer to war.

"It's like watching numbers roll higher and higher on a slot machine," said one State Department official, who asked not to be named.

This official said that during recent interagency meetings, White House budget aides "put their hands over their ears and said, " 'We're not listening.' "

"We can't take any more requests. Get a grip on this process and figure out exactly what you're planning," the official remembered the aides as saying. "They basically said, 'Get ahold of yourselves.' "

An Office of Management and Budget spokesman refused to comment on this account Tuesday and said that the administration has yet to settle on how much it will ask Congress to provide in order to pay for the war. President Bush's budgets for this fiscal year and next included no money for a war with Iraq.

"The president has not yet been presented with any numbers" for war costs, said OMB communications director Trent Duffy. The costs are "all subject to decisions the president has yet to make," said Duffy, "so it's premature to speculate what they might be."

Bush suggested Tuesday that war costs must come second to national security.

"There are all kinds of estimates about the cost of war," the president told reporters after a session with his new economic advisors. "But the risk of doing nothing, the risk of the security of this country being jeopardized at the hands of a madman with weapons of mass destruction, far exceeds the risks of any action."

Sources said that Bush met with Rumsfeld and OMB Director Mitchell E. Daniels Jr. on Tuesday to discuss war costs and the price of a U.S. occupation of Iraq that officials expect would follow.

Officials with the Pentagon, the State Department and OMB hoped to have a budget proposal assembled and ready to present to Congress by the end of next week.

Washington has been abuzz about a war's impact on the federal budget and the economy since last fall, when former White House economic advisor Lawrence B. Lindsey estimated that the conflict's costs could run between $100 billion and $200 billion, and come cheap at that price. Other administration officials rushed to dismiss the estimate and Lindsey was subsequently fired at least in part, many speculate, because of his willingness to put a price tag on the confrontation.

Since then, lawmakers, OMB and Congressional Budget Office analysts and outside experts have generally estimated that the immediate costs of a war — deployment of U.S. troops, fighting and early occupation — at between $50 billion and $60 billion. In recent interviews, Rumsfeld has put the price tag at "under $50 billion."

Analysts cautioned that the new $80 billion to $85 billion estimate may not cover exactly the same ground as previous estimates and may represent more of an opening bid by the Pentagon in coming negotiations with OMB and Congress than a measured tally of war costs.

The new figures do not include such costs as aid to allies. Sources said that separate from the $80-billion plus, the State Department will ask Congress for an extra $10 billion to $18 billion for aid to allies.

And the figures do not include a prolonged occupation of Iraq by U.S. and coalition troops after a war. That is expected to last for years, not the six months reflected in the new estimates.

A top Army official testified Tuesday that the occupation could require "several hundred thousand soldiers."

Impact on Budget

Word of the new war cost figures sent independent analysts scrambling for their calculators and Capitol Hill staffers wondering aloud how Congress can write a budget for the next fiscal year when such huge amounts are missing from this year's spending plan.

"These are considerably higher numbers than what people had been anticipating," said Steven Kosiak, a veteran defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a Washington think tank.

"They suggest that either the size of the force [the U.S. expects to field] is going to be bigger, or the length of the conflict is going longer" than predicted, he said.

"Logistically, this is going to make marking up a 2004 budget harder," said a veteran congressional staffer. "It's going to make selling the president's [tax cut] package a lot harder."

Bush is seeking $1.46 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years. These would come on top of the $1.35 trillion in cuts that he won in 2001.

Analysts said the new war cost estimates are particularly troubling because they come as the administration predicts that Washington will continue to run high budget deficits even without the extra cost of a war and at a time when the U. S. economy seems unable to snap back from recession.

According to the accounts of sources, the latest war cost projections are still only preliminary, even though war might be only a few weeks away.

"As [war] gets closer and closer, everyone wants to see a plan to pore over," said the State Department official. "When they [administration budget officials] go to meetings ... and when they realize there is no 300-page plan, they are stunned that we are going into this without questions answered."

America's last war with Iraq in the early 1990s cost $61 billion.

In that case, U.S. allies footed most of the bill. That almost certainly will not happen this time.

latimes.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (13496)2/26/2003 4:50:48 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 89467
 
Comstock Funds > State Deficits Offsetting Federal Stimulus

Impending state budget deficits could offset a large portion of the proposed federal stimulus package. Although we first wrote about the problem on November 25, 2002 (see ?State Budgets Exerting Negative Drag?), the issue is currently receiving more publicity as a result of this week?s meeting of the National Governors Association. Once all of the states have updated their figures for the current fiscal year ending on July 31, 2003 for most states, the total deficit could come to $50 billion. The figure already equals $40 billion for the states that have calculated their projections on a current basis. Of the deficits, $35 billion is a result of revenue shortfalls and increased Medicaid payments while $5 billion is attributed to homeland security expenses. Next year?s total deficit could run up to $80 billion even assuming relative sanguine mainstream economic forecasts.

The shortfall is worse, both in absolute and percentage terms, than the worst deficit of the early 1990s. The $19.5 billion deficit of 1992 amounted to 6.5% of the state budget totals while the current $50 billion projection is close to 10%. The pending federal fiscal stimulus proposal provides no extra funds for the states. In addition the states have still not received the promised federal assistance for homeland security and over half the 40% share of various mandated costs that the federal government promised to pay.

Since state governments are required by law to balance their budgets, a gap of perhaps $50 billion this year and $80 billion next year must be closed through a combination of reduced spending and higher taxes. Since many of the states have already used up most of their reserves and rainy-day funds and have made some of the easy moves such as cutting some non-controversial spending and raising so-called sin taxes (tobacco and alcohol), some hard choices are ahead.

Looking at the numbers, it is obvious that if the first year of the federal stimulus package is $100 billion, state actions to balance their budgets cut the effect of the federal stimulus in half. If the federal stimulus is less, the impact of the state budgets is even greater. The states? budget problems provide further support to our view that federal fiscal policy will have an exceedingly difficult time overcoming the strong headwinds to growth left over by the structural imbalances created in the late 1990s boom.

comstockfunds.com



To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (13496)2/26/2003 4:56:00 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 89467
 
A war that lacks a financial strategy

By Laura D'Andrea Tyson
Editorial
The Financial Times
Published: February 24 2003 20:07

The Bush administration is poised to unleash war in Iraq as the first demonstration of its muscular new foreign policy. According to the "Bush doctrine", military force can be used pre- emptively to attack nations judged to pose significant future threats; and to replace despots with freedom-loving democrats who espouse those moral values George W. Bush assures us are "the same in every culture, in every time and in every place". His bold agenda is made possible by America's overwhelming military power. But it also reflects a moral certitude where none should exist and lacks a financial strategy where one is essential.


Predictably, Mr Bush's most recent budget calls for another huge increase in military expenditure. But initially it did not include money to honour his commitment to help rebuild Afghanistan. Only when this omission was exposed was $300m added for this purpose. Nor does the budget cover the costs of war in Iraq or of occupation, humanitarian aid and reconstruction. According to William Nordhaus of Yale University such postwar costs could reach $100bn-$600bn over the next decade. No wonder some officials are already claiming Iraq must pay for its own reconstruction. And no wonder Turkey is sceptical that Washington will honour its offer of a $26bn aid package in exchange for its support for the war. After all, that package is also missing from the Bush budget.

What is in the budget is another round of massive tax cuts worth $1,500bn over the next decade. Even excluding long-term Social Security and Medicare liabilities, the budget projects a large deficit that will persist long after a war in Iraq is over and the economy has recovered. Based on the administration's own questionable assumptions about economic growth and lower real per capital spending on almost everything other than defence and homeland security, this budgetary imbalance is likely to reach $2,000bn over 10 years. This is exactly when the federal government should be building surpluses to cover its promises to future pensioners. A more responsible set of assumptions would make the shortfall substantially larger.

How does the administration plan to finance these mammoth deficits? Notwithstanding its unilateralist claims that America's destiny should not depend on decisions made by an "illusory international community", the White House is implicitly assuming that the rest of the world will foot a sizeable share of the bill. The US already absorbs about 5 per cent of the world's savings. It borrows about $200m from the rest of the world each day to cover its savings gap. The Bush budget will increase that gap to as much as 9 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of the decade. Will the rest of the world be willing to cover a gap of this size and, if so, on what terms? There is no reason to think the US will find itself in a buyer's market.

Indeed, there are already worrying signs that foreigners are beginning to reduce their massive holdings of dollars and dollar-denominated assets. As this adjustment takes hold, the dollar is beginning to weaken. It declined briefly during the last Gulf war and rallied when the war was over. But at that time, the US current account deficit was less than 2 per cent of GDP. President George Bush Snr had already been forced to break his promise not to raise taxes so as to reassure global capital markets that the US was acting to reduce its structural budget deficit.

Now, with the US much more reliant on foreign savings, his son clearly intends to increase these deficits. Meanwhile, the president's economic advisers are trying to convince the markets that deficits do not really matter. However, this time the costs of war, together with the Bush budget and foreign policy agenda, may well trigger a sustained decline in the dollar and a reduction in America's ability to borrow from the rest of the world.

Americans face painful choices. Structural deficits will mean more expensive imports and higher interest rates. These will depress private sector spending to make room for financing Mr Bush's budgetary priorities. The result will be lower national investment and living standards. Or, confronted with the deleterious effects of structural deficits on the dollar's value, on interest rates and on growth, the US might face deep cuts in education, healthcare and retirement benefits.

Such cuts may be the only way to fund Mr Bush's imperial ambitions and his munificent tax relief for the wealthy. Indeed, many in Mr Bush's inner circle are ideologically committed to reducing the government's involvement in such social programmes. But because the programmes are popular with voters, it is politically advantageous to undermine them in an indirect manner. The administration has already signalled its desire to privatise Social Security and, more recently, Medicare. The prospect of looming structural budget deficits can be adduced as a justification for doing so, even though those deficits are self-inflicted and avoidable.

The US is the world's only military superpower. It may indeed have the might to pursue a pre-emptive foreign policy that is breathtaking in its audacity and arrogance. But the US is also the world's largest debtor nation. It will need a sound financial plan to convince the rest of the world that helping to finance its global ambitions is a good idea. Right now, none exists.
_________________________________________

The writer is dean of London Business School

news.ft.com