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Technology Stocks : eBay - Superb Internet Business Model -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sherlockgerlach who wrote (7181)	2/26/2003 3:41:36 AM
From: AJ Berger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7772

EBay chief sees possible impact from Iraq war $73 shorts can probably breath a sign of relief as ebaY admits it's not immune to consumer sentiment, war jitters, AutoTrader competition, and further Asian area investment requirements. What interested me was what she did Not say regarding upcoming online auction patent litigation, she also avoided bragging about how many million of listings per day are being posted, a benchmark that many analysts use to track ebay growth. I think that -.04 lower she guided for the year will all come in the this quarter less a +.01 penny surprise. My guess is Q1'03 will not be able to eclipse .30 anymore, which still shows growth when you consider that last quarters .28 came mostly from a real estate deal booked, not operating earnings. This news will put ebaY's $78 price under pressure, but we may not have the slam dunk short many were hoping for here, at least until Meg's presentation becomes the actual earnings report 50 days from now. Now I'm sleeping better at night while holding this short, but I'm not going to add to my position either. Short interest should increase in February/March after decreasing in January, but this is not a good thing. Until ebaY concedes something bad enough to shake institutional longs who look at ebaY as one of their only winning positions, then this stock may continue to churn higher on reluctant short covering. So I did not get the Tangible bad news I was looking for, but Meg admitted enough negative pressure issues to keep me from covering just yet. Keep in mind the only really good news here, continuted European growth and online transaction processing(PayPal), has been built into this stock for at least Q4'02 and even as early as Q3'02, so there are no surprises here. Good Luck. --------------------------- LA QUINTA, Calif., Feb 25 (Reuters) - Online auctions giant eBay Inc. <EBAY.O> is eyeing a slump in U.S. consumer confidence, but is more concerned about the potential business impact of a war with Iraq, the company's chief executive said on Tuesday. EBay was seeing rapid growth in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands and was planning to return to the Japanese market, Meg Whitman said in a dinner address at the Goldman Sachs technology conference in this resort town. Despite strength in the company's international business, which she believed may outpace its U.S. operations one day, Whitman said the geopolitical climate could affect sales. "I think war in Iraq is a potential issue for us...many eBay users will go from the Net to CNN," she said. She was less downbeat but still cautious about U.S. consumer confidence, which has dipped on war fears, weakness in the stock market and a grim labour market. "We have seen continued strength in the consumer," she said, but added: "I think there is (now) some concern on our part." Ebay went public in 1998 and has steadily increased sales and earnings, as virtually every other Internet company has struggled. Giving an insight into the online business, Whitman said that at peak times -- Sunday morning and evening and Monday evening -- between 5,000 and 6,000 items were listed for sale every second. A piece of diamond jewelery was sold every 83 seconds, she said, while a sports utility vehicle was sold every 15 minutes. The near-total dominance of electronic fund transfers, combined with relatively short shipping times had made Germany a rapid success, she said. The company also planned to return to Japan, which it left after difficulties in gaining a toehold in the market. "Japan is an important market to us," she said. "Ultimately we will go back to Japan...the timing needs to be right." In terms of domestic competition, Whitman said the company was "not so worried about" competition from AOL, but was looking at challenges from sites like AutoTrader.com, which were expanding into niche, eBay-like markets. She said a dividend for shareholders might be possible as the company completed consolidation efforts with competitors and partially owned subsidiaries, and increased its scale. "Philosophically, we are not averse to that," she said. ((Reporting by Ben Berkowitz, editing by Anne Marie Roantree; ; Reuters Messaging: ben.berkowitz.reuters.com@reuters.net; (213) 380-2014)) REUTERS

To: sherlockgerlach who wrote (7181)	2/28/2003 10:12:39 AM
From: AJ Berger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7772

Discipline forced me to cover today I'm sorry, but I had to cover at $78 this morning. I can't believe after that cautious report we heard from Meg earlier this week, the fund managers like CSFB are still recommending this stock. Either they are a lot stupider then we are, or they know something we don't. Since they get paid a hell of a lot for their opinions, I have to believe they are not stupid. I need to conserve my capitol for any war-event related rally, so I'll have to watch from the sidelines for now. Good Luck everyone with your positions. To those who may think my covering is a contrary indicator, I'll only tell you this. The last time I shorted and was forced to cover was short at $63 and covered $67. You do the math. I won't reshort until there is a lot more volume in this stock. Watching shorts and coverers feed this stock every higher, while institutional longs just laugh from the sidelines, and insiders get to dump their options ever higher is getting ridiculous. I'm just sick to my stomach that such an over valued over hyped over optioned stock can be allowed to get away with this kind of run without more realistic scrutiny 3 years into our post "bubble" market.