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To: velociraptor_ who wrote (8236)	2/25/2003 6:12:29 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 10157

From Brian I have two running counts right now, one is bearish and one is bullish (for the next few days anyway). The grey and black count on the right says that the decline from Friday traced about 5 waves, and the move today was a correction of that move - ending exactly at the 61.8 retracement. tinyurl.com The green count has the low today as the end of an X wave, from which the SPX will do another A-B-C rally from here of roughly the same scale as the move off 806 - ending around 862. I haven't yet checked the DOW or the Nasdaq yet today, so I haven't seen what count the other indexes confirm (if any). I'll write more a little later. Brian ============================================================ From Mish note that every rally attempt has stopped at or near RSI 70 M

To: velociraptor_ who wrote (8236)	2/25/2003 8:43:45 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

From Brian I was looking at the options for the SPX over the next few months this afternoon, and Mish is right – March is a mess. April and May are feathers in the wind, but March and June are very heavy. The SPX seems to have clusters around 850 and 750 on the put side: finance.yahoo.com^SPX&d=o&q=A Given last week's performance, I'd have to say EW and Max pain are at odds here. There are counts that have the SPX making a new low beyond 806 and then rallying in a correction from the December 2 high of 954 – which could take the S&P right back up to the 850 area for March expiration. That count is the Green one on this chart: tinyurl.com That would leave wave 2 from the December 2 high complete with waves 3-5 to go during April and May. That is also the time where the 40 and 80-week cycles bottom: tinyurl.com But the Green count is not the one that counts the best right now. I think the best count right now is the Red one, which is similar to what Zoran Gayer had this weekend. safehaven.com The red count has the S&P just completing a wave 2 Flat last week, from which wave 3 should be starting right now. If I did not read this board and knew nothing about Max Pain, this is the count I would be betting on. But after seeing the S&P reach pain at 900 in January, and then seeing last week, Mish has me a little skeptical of the best fitting EW counts right now that call for a wave 3 dumping beginning right now. The short term count was not complicated by the rise this afternoon. The S&P ended at the 61.8% retracement from Friday's high at 952. So far this could be a normal correction of the recent decline (Grey and Black count), or it could be the beginning of another A-B-C rally (Red wave X) that would probably take the S&P up to around 864: tinyurl.com The Decline from 852 and the rise today can be counted a number of ways right now, but looks most like a 5 down and a 3 up – which means the trend is down. When this correction up finishes there will be a move down, and that move down will tell the story – a 3 wave move down means we're heading up. That is really all that can be said in terms of EW right now. Using EW to see the true short-term potential of the market can be complicated, but throw in some MM's and it is really hard to have confidence in one's “best count” playing out. The P&F chart will turn with a move above 840: tinyurl.com The Transports managed to close above its October low - barely: tinyurl.com And the dollar looks like its in a Flat correction, which would alternate with the Grey wave 2 correction. That means the dollar likely has a Grey wave 5 down directly ahead: tinyurl.com stockcharts.com The BP chart, the Summation and the other technical charts on the Chart list all suggest this wave 3 is coming – yet Max Pain has me edgy. Did you all listen to Financial Sense's interview of Dr. Marc Faber? Good stuff. netcastdaily.com netcastdaily.com Hope nobody minds the long rant. I was stopped out of HOV today - Grrrr. A curse on those housing stocks. tinyurl.com All the Best, Brian