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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (19011)	2/25/2003 8:29:03 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

EP, What happens if they don't report monster cash flows and earnings? What happens if they do and it's already priced into the stock? I'm not suggesting your strategy will fail. My problem is that I don't have access to enough accurate information to base my investing decisions. And, since I don't have this information, I open myself to a great deal of risk. People look at risk in different ways, I know. But in my opinion, just because one can afford to lose capital doesn't mean it's good business to do so. I think the condition of the market should determine how much risk we take. In a bull market, we can make a mistake and the market will often bail us out. If we make a mistake in a bear market, we can get crushed. We can lose 3-4 months worth of profits in one trade. In my opinion, if I take a position based on what appears to be very good technical analysis, and the trade goes against me, then that's a risk I can afford to take. But if I'm guessing that a company is going to have excellent numbers, even if it's an educated guess, it's still a guess. And that's the type of risk that hurts our overall performance if we're wrong just once or twice. Why? Because we have no way of measuring the downside. I can measure the downside when I base my decisions on technical analysis. Again, there are many ways to make money in the markets, I'm merely explaining my view here for those who may happen to read it. When you catch that steak, I have the A-1 to top it off with. Lemme know and we'll share. BTW, I did sell my RRI again. I had a 40% profit the last time, just 10% this time. I'll jump back in once we break resistance or we go back down and test a major support level. I realize I may miss some upside potential, but potential isn't my objective, realized gains are. It doesn't take too many 8-10% trades in a year to show excellent results. The key is you must eliminate those downside 10% or more trades. You can't win a championship without a good defense. Cut losses short, 3-4% (which should be easy for those of us using TA), and take those profits as they come, 8-10% at a time, and we'll outproduce 80% of the market. dabum