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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (13512)	2/25/2003 10:09:21 PM
From: T L Comiskey	Respond to of 89467

lurqer..Most excellent.. thx... T

To: lurqer who wrote (13512)	2/26/2003 3:48:04 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

Bush vs. Saddam debate? A fair fight - English is a foreign language for both of them. ~Jay Leno

To: lurqer who wrote (13512)	2/26/2003 1:15:01 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

JohnJ Murphy interview, I realize economy not discussed here, but interesting on CNBC this morning he trotted out various charts, with minimal discussions the interviewer was Ted David, who showed no depth he also seemed to show little interest in the fallout effects this is a typical exchange we see nowadays on press/media the feeling I was left with was sadness, dismay the public viewers have no clue what is going on, none the media talking heads are as ignorant as humanly possible that or illiterate Murphy showed the USDollar (trade weighted index) chart he drew the downtrend line, and said it is in "virtual collapse" down 20% in the last year no comment, no followup Murphy showed the S&P chart he drew the downtrend line, and said "we are still in a longterm bear market" but we are attempting to consolidate here since October Murphy showed a TENyr TNote yield chart he focused on the time period since October and again said we are attempting to consolidate Murphy went back to the dollar, and made some excellent comments he said the falling dollar is primarily responsible for a new strong bull market in commodities, as seen in the CRB index he showed the CRB chart, and drew an uptrend line Murphy tried to make a big point he said it is not just energy and gold instead it is across the entire spectrum, as price inflation is now being seen in grains, industrial metals, and much more than energy and gold Ted David said "so the Fed effort to bring back some inflation is working" Murphy said "well, we have a bull market in commodities" that was the end of the interview here are my comments: we have a new trend of rising costs of production from materials, energy, labor, employee health, shipping this will bring about a profit squeeze in a BIG BIG way companys still have no pricing power the end result is further diminishment of earnings and profits when Asian imports rise in price (should happen soon), then we will see imported component prices hurt production costs further the recession is about to take a serious bite very soon earnings already suck they are about to get worse, generating corporate losses layoffs will be the only method to survive such is the nature of a consumption-based economy we cannot spend our way into an economic recovery corporations have stopped investing in capex now they will see even more scarce profits as I like to say: there is good inflation, and bad inflation when it shows up in higher production costs, that is BAD INFLATION when it shows up in greater spending ability, that is GOOD INFLATION we have bad inflation coming home to slap us silly / jim

To: lurqer who wrote (13512)	2/26/2003 2:40:36 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Eric Fry reinforces the point on corporate profit squeeze (taken from Daily Reckoning) "Meanwhile, businesses are finding that various costs have been stubbornly rising," observes Andrew Kashdan of Apogee Research. "Richard Berner and Shital Patel, of Morgan Stanley, note that corporate America is experiencing a 'perfect storm' with regard to cost pressures. While wages, which make up the majority of costs, have remained relatively flat over the last few years, costs have accelerated for health and pension benefits, insurance, worker's compensation, security services, materials and energy. "For example," Kashdan continues, "health care insurance premiums for large-cap companies are rising at a 13% rate this year, wholesale energy prices are up 75% from a year ago, and pension contributions, says Berner, will eat up about $20 billion of operating profits in 2003. Our expert grasp of accounting (profits equal revenue minus costs) tells us that a problem could be brewing." but dont fear, the annual 2ndHalf Recovery is coming only within the minds of the TOTALLY DELUSIONAL AND IDIOTIC in this economic environment, failure for 2ndHalf Recovery to arrive heightens the risk of a recession, rather than increase the likelihood of its eventual arrival the changes in the mix for the last few months are rising material and energy costs, with some continued increases in health care costs I thought for a while lately that the recession would be triggered by the car sector now I think it will be the consumer who retrenches from higher energy costs and it will be the corporate profit squeeze from higher production costs which breeds layoffs and more consumer retrenching still I still laugh every time I hear some fuching moron jerkweed on TV proclaim that good things will come from the war effort not a single good thing yet has only higher energy costs and federal deficits precisely what easily takes our economy into recession, while piling on for the dollar decline an inflationary recession is coming!!! / jim