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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (5731)2/26/2003 9:44:26 AM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 25522
 
nice chart, thanks. It looks like consumer confidence lags economic recoveries, which in turn happen after stocks start going up.

Here is another chart I found:
suite101.com
It shows EXPECTATIONS.

The last three times expectations went below 75 we got a bear market rally. They were also that low many, many times before the 1995-2000 period of irrational exuberance.

I had not realized before that Consumer Expecations were a contrarian indicator, but it makes sense...

Also, on TV they said that consumers will say one thing in a survey but still go out and shop/buy when they need something.

Kirk



To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (5731)2/26/2003 10:19:57 AM
From: chomolungma  Respond to of 25522
 
It looks like consumer confidence lags economic recoveries,

No, this is incorrect.

Consumer expectations, both the Michigan survey and the Conference Board Survey, are ranked leading indicators at both the top of the economic cycle and at its trough. In fact, the Michigan survey is one of the 10 indicators in the composite LEI.


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