To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (9640 ) 2/27/2003 7:32:31 AM From: Kerm Yerman Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24925 In The News / BMO Seeing Oil & Gas Up The Canadian Press Thursday, February 27, 2003 TORONTO -- Oil and gas will be the powerhouse of the Canadian economy over the next two years, and the auto sector -- usually a driving force -- will trail the pack, says a new study by Bank of Montreal economists. The oil and gas services sector will expand at an annual growth rate of 11.4 per cent through 2004, amid higher energy prices and the expectation of strong prices going forward, particularly for natural gas, the bank said yesterday. "Furthermore, Alberta oilsands exploration and development is growing at a quick pace, requiring substantial participation from independent servicing companies," BMO said in its report. It's much less bullish on the auto sector, a key economic driver that industry analysts say employs, directly or indirectly, one in seven Canadians. "While we believe that the economy will continue to move in a positive growth curve through 2003 and 2004, many of the traditional high-performing sectors such as auto parts and vehicle manufacturing, will start to falter," said BMO economist Tim O'Neill. While auto sales reached a record of 1.7 million units in Canada last year, those totals are expected to slip in 2003. Sales to the U.S., the biggest market for Canadian-made vehicles and parts, will likely fall faster. That will affect the Canadian industry since about 85 per cent of cars made here are sold south of the border. "New-vehicle sales have clearly been stretched beyond their normal demand levels in recent years as factory incentives and low-interest rates helped pull future sales into the market," O'Neill said. "As a result, we anticipate that auto sales in North America will fall approximately six per cent this year and will not return to trend levels until mid-decade." The BMO report also warns of risks for some sectors due to potential war on Iraq. "Military intervention with the United States playing a lead role would raise fears of terrorist retaliation and other security risks, undermining confidence of both businesses and consumers in Canada's biggest foreign market," said O'Neill.