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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chomolungma who wrote (5736)	2/26/2003 11:00:37 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 25522

> Whether we're talking the expectations component or the consumer confidence composite, the Conference Board, which is the keeper of these numbers, ranks them as leading. Yes I know how the board views them. What I am saying is that this view may not be correct. The study I read (and cannot site at the moment) showed that only the expectation number was important in predicting the future. The other components did not matter. ST

To: chomolungma who wrote (5736)	2/26/2003 11:19:10 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

That is what I used to think before I saw that chart suite101.com showing that major lows in consumer expectations came at market bottoms and major highs were at market tops. Perhaps the Conference Board would not have such a large market for its data if this were better known? Check it out... It even peaked just before the 1987 bear market Black Monday then fell when the market fell. Also, look how positive it was when the bubble was peaking. Maybe we need a 2nd source to plot the data? Kirk