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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Mining Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldsheet who wrote (3775)	2/28/2003 4:46:17 PM
From: goldsheet	Respond to of 4051

Anglo profit beats forecasts, rand a worry biz.yahoo.com

To: goldsheet who wrote (3775)	3/3/2003 7:49:34 PM
From: baystock	Respond to of 4051

Dr. Clive Roffey comments- RAND One of the main contributing factors to the fall in gold share prices has been the strength of the Rand. I am looking for a major bottom to the dollar / rand relationship right now. I am looking for the rand to weaken to at least R9 during the coming weeks. I am not looking for the rand to strengthen to R7,50. I am calling a MAJOR top on the Rand. The move under R8 was the final fifth wave push and I rate the Rand as an extremely overbought currency despite the remarks of our finance minister. There is a huge sell divergence on the Rand and I would not be holding Rands at this point of time. I would advise importers to cover their foreign currency position. A weaker Rand will have a dramatic impact on the movement of the gold shares. GOLD From June to November 2002 the $gold price mapped out a classic triangle from which the price had a catapult up to $388. Since this event the price has relaxed. The Fibonacci 61,8% retracement level is at $344. This price was achieved in New York last night. Many analysts are insisting that bullion needs to fall right back to the start of the triangle at $320. I do no believe this will occur as the in a bull market the 61,8% retracement should hold. In addition the shares are all close to completing a major correction. CONCLUSIONS 1. I look for the Rand price of gold to turn upwards and to move towards R4100 during the next six months. 2. The JSE Gold index remains inside its long term bull trend. 3. Goldfields, my gold share marker, is ready for a huge reversal in price as it completes the fifth and final leg of the triangular pattern in which it has been locked since last May. 4. The Philadelphia gold index has formed a huge reverse head and shoulders base pattern that is extremely bullish for the long term prospects of the shares in dollars. 5. Silver has entered a bull trend and should continue in this vein for some time. 6. The $gold price has achieved a 61,8% retracement and should reverse its downside trend from here. 7. The Rand has a huge sell divergence and I must look for a considerably weaker rand from this point of time. 8. All the long term bullish trends associated with the gold market remain in place. 9. There are numerous signals that this gold market is into the final phase of its long term correction since May last year. 10. This is NOT a selling area, it is a BUYING area. Dr. Clive Roffey February 28th 2003