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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (8817)	2/26/2003 10:48:26 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95656

Semiconductors . . . Wachovia reiterated their Outperform rating on Texas Instruments based on expectations for flat sequential revs in the March quarter (vs. seasonally down for many other semi company's) as well as expectations for a ramp in wireless in the June quarter/2nd half 2003. Separately, TXN reiterated guidance at the Goldman Sachs conference today. Semtech posted fourth-quarter earnings of $8.1 million, or 11 cents per share, a penny ahead of the average estimate of analysts. Sales slipped to $44.5 million for the latest three months from $46.4 million in the same period a year earlier. The company said that its protection and power management product lines did well in the latest quarter, despite difficult market conditions. Looking ahead, Semtech sees earnings of 11 cents per share in the first quarter, a penny ahead of Wall Street's current consensus estimate. Boxmakers . . . Dell will soon move into the 2nd phase of its Lexmark agreement (phase one was simply expanded resale; phase 2 involves Dell branded units). It is most likely to target its natural constituency, the business market, where its distribution funnel and brand are strongest. Would not minimize any Dell impact on the market place but remind investors that both installed base build and IP patent constraints will limit Dell's ability to disrupt the market. Hewlett-Packard’s reported solid pro-forma 1st quarter EPS $0.29 despite revenue just $17.9 billion, $0.5 billion < estimates due to weak US. IPG +9% Year/Year and supplies +14%. ESG –6% Quarter/Quarter. PC’s returned to the black, despite revenue +2% Quarter/Quarter and further reduction in channel inventories. Management guided to flat-to-slightly down 2nd quarter and comfort w/ consensus $0.27E. Round F2003E EPS from $1.16 to $1.15, maintain 2004E $1.50. Effectively all of HPQ’s stock market valuation accounted for by IPG, while 1st quarter provides positive evidence that management can successfully extract value from the $50 billion systems & services business. Walter Winnitzki at First Albany said Hewlett-Packard's comments in a conference call regarding its intention to shift more of its PC business to a direct model "could have a positive psychological impact" on PC products distributors Ingram Micro and Tech Data. He doesn't think the news will have an impact on earnings and revenue estimates for the companies, but believes it shows that investors' concerns over their long-term roles are unwarranted. Ingram Micro is shedding 32 cents to $9.93 and Tech Data is slipping 8 cents to $21.88. Winnitzki added that the stocks are trading at just over their respective companies' tangible book value. H-P shares are currently down 12 percent at $15.93. Hewlett-Packard cut to In-Line from Outperform at Goldman after revenue shortfall. Goldman Sachs says that although EPS topped consensus, Hewlett-Packard's quarter was far from clean. Firm cites items including the restatement of segment revs/earnings, a significant top-line shortfall, and notably weak cash flow from ops. Goldman is reducing its 2003 estimate to $1.29 from $1.34 and revenue estimate to $73.7 billion from $75.5 billion. The firm sees little that will get new investors excited about the stock at this point. CEO Michael Dell told a Goldman Sachs Technology Symposium he doesn't expect to see a pickup in business spending even after the Iraq crisis is resolved. 2020insight.com March in like a lion and out like a lamb? I don't know Softie because if the technical and sentiment indicators say bottom then it won't matter to me what month it is because I will be long for the next bear market bottom furious rally.