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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hmaly who wrote (162368)	2/27/2003 2:22:14 PM
From: SilentZ	Respond to of 1577893

>And Iraq has suffered through 20 some yrs of Saddam. Perhaps they are ready for a change. Yeah, to an Islamist government. >I got a feeling it won't take a lot of troops. We certainly could take the troops out of Germany, and put them in Iraq, where they might be more welcome. Frankly, I don't see a big problem. You can bet there are some good generals, and civilians in Iraq, who are capable, and will be able to form a good interim gov. until the laws, parliament and constitution can be set up. But they likely won't cooperate with each other without a gun to their heads, as unfortunate as that sounds. >The middle east could be the new Pacific Basin, as far a growth goes, if terrorism can be rooted out. That's WAAAY too optimistic when talking about an area with a laregly uneducated population and only one major natural resource. Are you looking 25-50 years down the line? >AFAIK most of those problems are behind Turkey. Turkey didn't have the devastation, help, or oil Iraq has, so it takes a long time to change things gradually. They're not behind them... and they're likely about to get worse. We're basically paying 15+ billion to the Turks to allow them to keep oppressing the Kurds. >I would only be in favor of the war if we can control the end, or at least give it one hell of a try. If we leave Saddam and OBL in control of the middle east, you can bet SA would be in big trouble. And OBL controlling Sa oilfields would spell big money fro Al qaeda,, and big trouble for the US. If we pull out of Iraq, OBL could easily fill the void, plus we would have to stay long enough to get rid of the WMD. So, no way do I think we could pull out within 2 yrs. My bet is that we will have around 2 yrs. to start showing a positive outcome in Iraq, before the arabs start getting surly. At that time, we should know, whether it will be a success or a hold on to your hat type of deal. But what if GW says that's not the plan? >Absolutely. However, after 20 yrs of Saddam, they might be fairly amendable to change. That will be the question. Well, the thing is that most Iraqis really do like Saddam. Not because he's good, but because he's brainwashed them. He's taught them that he is a god and not to trust the Americans. When that's all you hear for 20 years, you begin to believe it. >How bad do they want it, and will Al qaeda be strong enough to disrupt the healing process. It won't be al-Qaida- more likely Hizbollah and Islamic Jihad, judging by the distinct Iranian flavor I'm tasting here... -Z