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To: Perspective who wrote (67563)2/27/2003 2:41:32 PM
From: jjstingray  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
I agree, boy, that p/c ratio is ridiculous. I was really thinking we would put in a good two to three day rally. Now I am not so sure.



To: Perspective who wrote (67563)2/27/2003 5:38:55 PM
From: 4rthofjuly007  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
bobcor, I am posting this to you because you are one of the most well rounded SIers that I have read. Let me say that I generally fall in line with the majority of this board with regards to the long term prospects of the markets. Perhaps not as gloomy as some but certainly of the belief that it will take many, many years for the overcapacity and debt bubbles to be worked off and hopefully they don't lead to major economic crisis. And in the meantime, stocks will see lower prices in the future imo.

My question is with regards to the dollar in the ST to IT. I have watched the dollar trade lower and lower and fully understand why it does so relative to gold and the Yen. What I do not understand is why it trades lower and lower relative to the Euro. I think that the state of the larger European economies is just about as poor as ours. Some might say that they have some tighter budgetary restraint, but I think that this is offset by the abysmal growth they are seeing. Long term, I can see how if the US and the Eurozone economies rise and fall step for step and they have more fiscal discipline, their currency would command a premium. But in the ST and even IT, the rise of the Euro seems well overdone imo.

Would it be an unreasonable scenario that as the Iraq "crisis" gets resolved and the incorrect perception once again arises that growth in the US will strengthen (all mho, of course), alot of people holding the Euro will look at the economic stagnation of countries like Germany and France and pile out for a period of time and into the dollar?