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To: ild who wrote (224389)	2/28/2003 11:25:53 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 436258

Global: When Shocks Matter Stephen Roach (from Singapore) morganstanley.com ... There are times when it pays to be overly-simplistic on the global macro call. This is one of those times. Three key points are most obvious to me insofar as the cyclical prognosis for the world economy is concerned: First, in a US-centric world, the global call is basically a call on the US economy. Second, the US is in the midst of a classic oil shock. And, third, that shock has occurred at a point of maximum vulnerability — when a US-centric industrial world had slowed to a virtual standstill. The conclusion is inescapable: The recession warning model that I have long advocated is now flashing a serious alert for the US and for the US-centric global economy. A stalling economy lacks the cyclical immunities that cushion it from an unexpected blow. A stalling economy that has been hit by a shock is a recipe for recession. Unfortunately, it’s that simple. ...